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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Jul 19, 2019 8:25:57 GMT -5
Look at Chabot last year 63-59
I played him 18 min a game, had 55 points with 18 goals and was a +28.
This year as a 70-62 will be playing 1st or 2nd pairing and should have even better numbers. A D who can actually complete a pass out of the zone can sometimes be more valuable than the D who can block the shot/takeway possession but then give it right back.
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Post by Scott-New York on Jul 19, 2019 8:43:05 GMT -5
The formula for how defensive stats are calculated has been posted many times, it's here somewhere. I'd link to it again if I was at home but if someone could that would be great because I won't be home until Sunday evening
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Jul 19, 2019 8:45:17 GMT -5
Also just as an aside, I still can't believe the league collectively let Dahlin, quite possibly the most talented D in a generation to fall to 5th in our league. As an 18 year old D he put up 44 points, you know just how many people have beaten that mark? 1 - Phil Housley, could argue Bobby Orr 41 in 61 games would have beaten it but still just crazy he fell.
In 5 years new GMs are going to wonder how it was possible he fell to Halifax.
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Post by Jedediah-Hartford on Jul 19, 2019 8:52:44 GMT -5
The formula for how defensive stats are calculated has been posted many times, it's here somewhere. I'd link to it again if I was at home but if someone could that would be great because I won't be home until Sunday evening Yes, I realize the formula has been posted before, I would not have been able to mention the blocked shots aspect if it were otherwise. I'm talking about seeing all those stats on a page when I look at my players' NHL Stats.
Regardless of how anyone feels over the choice of stats, I think most of us would want to be able to see them in a comparative format like we can with the conventional stats we already pull. If there isn't a way to look at these comparatively (even on a site like hockey-reference.com I'm not sure I see all of what we use in this formula) then it begs the question of how good a job the formula does of representing a player's effectiveness.
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Post by Justin-Cincinnati on Jul 19, 2019 8:53:20 GMT -5
Also just as an aside, I still can't believe the league collectively let Dahlin, quite possibly the most talented D in a generation to fall to 5th in our league. As an 18 year old D he put up 44 points, you know just how many people have beaten that mark? 1 - Phil Housley, could argue Bobby Orr 41 in 61 games would have beaten it but still just crazy he fell. In 5 years new GMs are going to wonder how it was possible he fell to Halifax. If I wasnt in desperate need of a franchise goalie, I would have taken him at 2 without a doubt. I know its not smart to draft need instead of best player available, especially at #2. Hopefully Hart doesnt make me regret my decision.
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Post by Scott-New York on Jul 19, 2019 8:56:27 GMT -5
The formula for how defensive stats are calculated has been posted many times, it's here somewhere. I'd link to it again if I was at home but if someone could that would be great because I won't be home until Sunday evening Yes, I realize the formula has been posted before, I would not have been able to mention the blocked shots aspect if it were otherwise. I'm talking about seeing all those stats on a page when I look at my players' NHL Stats.
Regardless of how anyone feels over the choice of stats, I think most of us would want to be able to see them in a comparative format like we can with the conventional stats we already pull. If there isn't a way to look at these comparatively (even on a site like hockey-reference.com I'm not sure I see all of what we use in this formula) then it begs the question of how good a job the formula does of representing a player's effectiveness.
NHL.com has a very good stats page, you can't see them all on one page, but I believe they all there
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Post by Jedediah-Hartford on Jul 19, 2019 9:34:55 GMT -5
Is there anyway to compare specifically chosen players on the same screen with this? It does have a lot of detailed stats that I would be interested to compare for the particular player comparison I have in mind.
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Post by Scott-New York on Jul 19, 2019 10:31:05 GMT -5
I think it allows you to select by position or team by refining results but I'm not sure if you can select specific players
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Post by Jedediah-Hartford on Jul 19, 2019 10:42:18 GMT -5
I'll just have to do some old-fashioned copying and pasting over the weekend then haha.
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Post by Owen-Moncton on Jul 19, 2019 11:53:10 GMT -5
I realized a few years ago that the best kind of defensemen to have in the G are often the opposite of what is trending in the NHL and other pro leagues. In the NHL, the proverbial 'crusher' has been replaced by the shiny, flashy new "rusher" wherein shiftiness and the ability to transport the puck out of the D zone takes precedence over the classic "shutdown" or "two-way"defender. Ghost, Reilly, Barrie, Gardiner, et al don't hold the same value in our simulation as they do in actual pro hockey because the sim's logic apparently pits an opponent's offensive numbers against your guy's probability of closing him off before he can produce a scoring chance. Had Karl Alzner's health not failed him, he'd be a superstar in the G, because he could hit, block shots and suppress the opposition the way a Jake Muzzin type of defender would approach the game. My best seasons have been the ones where my forwards could skate and snipe and my D-men punished the guilty. Pretty sure Hank won goalie of the year with my all star shutdown D lineup... Im really hoping Hronek becomes a two-way force vs a Norris candidate.Those guys just eat your cap space and expose your goalie. It is difficult for some to look past the weaker defensive ratings of some d-men and this fact tends to dissuade to lower the value of these types of players in the G. The one thing I would say is that every point they have, whether it be in the Off/Def/Neut category is a positive in the simulation. Also the bottom line is you need to score goals to win any game so points in the Shot/Shot Pct/Pass categories are gold as well.I see your logic, Glenn, but this assumes your forwards are also possessing in the attacking zone in order mitigate opportunities against. Otherwise, your D are in defense mode and not contributing to offense. For that reason, in my opinion, it is easier to control these variables by having 3-4 minute-munching, puck-eating heavy-hitters on the back end than what has become the new breed of 'dwinger'. Green is a fine example..so is my guy Leddy. He can QB a PP and his +/- improved remarkably, yet he's 6.5 M worth of dog-shit. THN describes him thusly: "Is a tremendous skater with outstanding mobility and acceleration. Can lead the rush and set up teammates with great vision and passing skills". He had 22 apples and went from -44 to 0 in +/-, yet his pass% is subpar. I can get equal value from Christian Jaros at 500K who hits more and blocks more shots. It's for these reasons that I submit with respect for other assholes like myself and their varying opinions on the subject, that Erik Gudbranson is probably a safer bet than Tyson Barrie...as a Leaf fan, I predict Rasmus Sandin ultimately has a better GHL card than Timothy Liljegren, who is the prototypical new breed of attacking defender who plays the game almost like a third winger. In year one with Moncton, I wanted heavy, bruising forwards that could beat the opposition physically. Sorta the Brian Burke school of hockey when he was in charge of the US team. He said to the press: "we can't beat Canada going head to head in an offensive battle, but how we can compete and possibly win is by rolling four lines of skillled grit and imposing our will on them every shift". I'm paraphrasing, but that was his gameplan and I for one bought it. In terms of D, I originally looked at only a few categories: FORT, STAM, PASS, HIT, BLOCK. When I started paying attention to the finer points that are built into the game (to your credit) such as STICKCHECK, DENYSPACE and LANE CONTROL--and signing/trading accordingly, my goals against improved. I give a ton of credit to Matt COL for doing some very good work in my absence, and it was around the time I returned that I really began to rethink my strategy in terms of how to engineer a competitive team. I've had a few 'Chiarelli moments', maybe even a "Lamoriello" or two, but I know what kind of team I need to put together and I have a better grasp of how the GHL works than I once did. I like how the sim's logic pits two opponents against one another in order to determine the most likely outcome. It tells me what kind of player I need in what position to give myself the best chance of success, but even this varies according to how the opponent's team is engineered. If my 3C cant win a draw in the D zone, I better have some puck-hungry D men who are ready to front some vulcanized rubber. Anyway, in my opinion, a good GHL team is built from the blueline. You can have a good (not great) goalie as long as your blueline is able to shut the opposition down.
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Post by Owen-Moncton on Jul 19, 2019 11:59:27 GMT -5
Also just as an aside, I still can't believe the league collectively let Dahlin, quite possibly the most talented D in a generation to fall to 5th in our league. As an 18 year old D he put up 44 points, you know just how many people have beaten that mark? 1 - Phil Housley, could argue Bobby Orr 41 in 61 games would have beaten it but still just crazy he fell. In 5 years new GMs are going to wonder how it was possible he fell to Halifax. Part of me died inside that day. Never thought my 1st would go top 3 and I never imagined he'd fall to 5. Ian did very well. Hoping Brannstrom shows some of that 2-way game RD is knwn for.
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Post by Scott-New York on Jul 19, 2019 12:48:46 GMT -5
I think all us assholes had him ranked #1 & I passed him up as well so I have to take 25% of the blame for him falling to #5
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jul 19, 2019 12:51:19 GMT -5
Since I started this thread and it seems to be coming back a bit, mostly just to tell me I’m a blathering fool who doesn’t know what he’s talking about let me provide the context. Here is the GHL blurb on defensive ratings: These are the ingredients for determining defensive (RED) values: The main ingredients (with varying amounts used if F or D) are: seconds played between blocked shots seconds played between takeaways seconds played between giveaways percentage of time played shorthanded Corsi Rating and lastly player plus minus compared to teams plus minus Read more: gtgfhl.proboards.com/thread/4988/player-cards-determined#The problem I’m having is that nowhere in this are we told what the formula actually is, these are just the raw stats. We’re later told that Corsi makes up about 5-10%. The problem I feel is that some of these stats are unreliable in determining the quality of a defenseman. Unfortunately these stats are the few we have to go on. I was mostly just voicing my frustration and pointing out that blocked shots seem to be unfairly heavily weighted. I have/had two first pairing NHL defensemen. Aaron Ekblad was the 113th ranked defensive rating. His offensive overall is a 59 which isn’t much higher then the defensemen above him who for the most part appear to be in the 50-60 range. Zach Werenski is the 164th ranked defenseman and his 63 offensive rating is slightly higher than most defensemen but not by much. Looking at it now I don’t believe the “higher” offensive rating makes up for a whole lot when the offensive margin is only about 5-10 points compared to the 20-30+difference in defensive rating. The problem I see is that defensemen need a better way to be evaluated to accurately portray their effectiveness. Most seem to be happy with the way things are though and any time I bring up these discrepancies I get treated like a tin foil hat wearing pariah. I try and make some fact based arguments and get told I don’t know what I’m talking about. Ya’ll want things left alone so I’ll leave it at that. We’ll never know the exact formula or weight of each category and i’ll Chalk up the last three years of drafting potential and actual first pairing defensemen that don’t translate to the GHL to experience.
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Post by Scott-New York on Jul 19, 2019 13:12:53 GMT -5
The formula is actually here somewhere...and still a matter of opinion when it's said they don't translate to the GHL. All I can gather is you guys mean the defense ratings are not as high as defensive defenseman, which doesn't diminish their card value in any category, except that one stat. Now, if you want to or prefer to collect a team full of Lovejoy's, I say, have it, but you won't win here just as that D wouldn't win in the NHL. Again, just my opinion, sort of...
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jul 19, 2019 13:13:34 GMT -5
Ah yes, bravo Jon, bravo! See young Christopher’s first imploding ( circa year 3 ), then every other year henceforth.
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