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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Nov 6, 2010 22:38:38 GMT -5
Offense is being rewarded at double the value of defense.
It's definately skewed....
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Nov 12, 2010 1:31:40 GMT -5
Something is definitely skewed! Im finding it difficult to get production out of 4 "High Caliber NHL" players...and Im losing heads up to players who are "scrubs and pounders", guys who have been sent to waivers by NHL teams...for example, Nigel Dawes ( 2 games, 2 goals ), Todd Fedoruk, Matt Hendricks ( who is lighting up the league ), Andrew Alberts, Paul Byron ( who the hell is this?! )....This is a bit rediculous.
The problem is, these guys all had high shooting percentages because they had limited shots...but these guys are either getting more shots than they had in the NHL or they are being placed on top lines with top passers.....however, the computer is not fatiguing them correctly as it should. A guy with a 9 Shooting Percentage, but only a 3 stamina, should be more of a liability than a point producer getting 1st line minutes.
In one game against New England, Marc Andre Bergeron was a PLUS 7....PLUS 7!!!!! This guy cant cut it as a Top 4 Dman in the NHL, yet is a PLUS 7...What the hell. Offense is definitely weighted too damn high....
I made sure, during draft process, that the guys I drafted ALL had Stamina and Fortitude, especially if they were top line players. I wish we could see the line-ups of the teams we played so that I can compare, and to see different GM strategies to see what works best or what is worse.
Even worrisome to me is, that there are players who are 3 Fortitude Rankings ( David Jones ) that is scoring nearly every game, but hasnt been hurt yet....I have a guy who is a 7 fortitude, who is out for the entire year ( or until 4/2011 )....A core part of my defensive defense gone! Somethings just need to be tweaked....
Shooting Percentages, Puck Control, Goaltender Save Percentages, Stamina and Fortitudes need to be represented better in the stats as well...
We need Glenn!!!!!!
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Nov 12, 2010 8:04:00 GMT -5
Something is definitely skewed! Im finding it difficult to get production out of 4 "High Caliber NHL" players...and Im losing heads up to players who are "scrubs and pounders", guys who have been sent to waivers by NHL teams...for example, Nigel Dawes ( 2 games, 2 goals ), Todd Fedoruk, Matt Hendricks ( who is lighting up the league ), Andrew Alberts, Paul Byron ( who the hell is this?! )....This is a bit rediculous. The problem is, these guys all had high shooting percentages because they had limited shots...but these guys are either getting more shots than they had in the NHL or they are being placed on top lines with top passers.....however, the computer is not fatiguing them correctly as it should. A guy with a 9 Shooting Percentage, but only a 3 stamina, should be more of a liability than a point producer getting 1st line minutes. In one game against New England, Marc Andre Bergeron was a PLUS 7....PLUS 7!!!!! This guy cant cut it as a Top 4 Dman in the NHL, yet is a PLUS 7...What the hell. Offense is definitely weighted too damn high.... I made sure, during draft process, that the guys I drafted ALL had Stamina and Fortitude, especially if they were top line players. I wish we could see the line-ups of the teams we played so that I can compare, and to see different GM strategies to see what works best or what is worse. Even worrisome to me is, that there are players who are 3 Fortitude Rankings ( David Jones ) that is scoring nearly every game, but hasnt been hurt yet....I have a guy who is a 7 fortitude, who is out for the entire year ( or until 4/2011 )....A core part of my defensive defense gone! Somethings just need to be tweaked.... Shooting Percentages, Puck Control, Goaltender Save Percentages, Stamina and Fortitudes need to be represented better in the stats as well... We need Glenn!!!!!! You bring up some good points however the sample size is still too small to point at something and conclusively say, "Ah hah!". I just took a look at Dawes' stats from last year: 2009-10 Calgary NHL 66 14 18 32 1 18 4 0 2 96 0.48 He only has 4 points in 12 games this year. According to his NHL stats he is under performing. I haven't bothered checking the other players you ID'd above but if time permits, I may check them over lunch. If they pan out like Dawes did, I would suggest a review of players stats from last year in comparison to what they are doing this year as an indication of engine soundness versus guys you think are scrubs or not. If we look at last year, Jody Shelley had not scored since whenever and he bangs in two goals in back to back games against Philly at the end of the year. If the NHL was the FHL, an argument may have risen based upon this to tinker with the engine because there is no way that Jody F'n Shelley could score in back to back games. The shooting rating is interesting though. Maybe I do need to figure in a players stamina when these values are used however my thought was that they can shoot all they want and if their shoot % score is a 2, the pucks wouldn't be going in too much. It might be the fact that even though the % isn't high, if a player gets the puck in the crease, even a guy with cement blocks for hands is going to score 25% of the time. I will look to log what part of the ice goals are being scored from in an effort to get a better handle on this issue. Keep the faith boys. This is the alpha version of the product and I ram relying heavily on GMs to ID and assist in stamping out these anomalies.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Nov 12, 2010 12:51:21 GMT -5
Im just saying....SUFFOLK SUCKS! To allow, the scrubs to score against us, adds to the woefulness of this GM!
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Nov 12, 2010 13:09:31 GMT -5
Im just saying....SUFFOLK SUCKS! To allow, the scrubs to score against us, adds to the woefulness of this GM! At least you have more points than the mighty Pharaohs...
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Nov 12, 2010 14:23:20 GMT -5
Soon, so shall you pass us, as has the rest !!!
I think one of the bugs, which I imagine will be hard to fix is this.....I will say it in simple terms, because I am a simpleton and dont know how it can be attempted....
There are players scoring that do not own an all around game. The logic is making them appear as though they are all around players. I dont think the guys that are producing in the FHL, will/have produced on a regular basis in the NHL, the way they are now. I looked at few teams and players....and its obvious that a guy who has a Shooting % that is high is going to score..thats a no brainer, but I think that is an area that may need to be lowered. For ex..Nik Antropov has a 9 out of 10 Player Card, which would make him a Top 10 player in the FHL. Hardly what I think he is, IMO....He doesnt own an all around game, his skating is slow, doesnt hit, doesnt back check...Logically, I would think against another FHL team that has a true elite Forward, he would be a minus player. Same goes for Marc Andre-Bergeron....this guy is the surprise of the FHL in my opinion. He was a 6-7 dman for Montreal because he was more of a liability and was released by them. ....I thk the defense players that have a decent shooting percentage are outproducing offense minded players because they have more shots on goal....but the offense minded players arent getting the chances that the lesser players are getting. The lesser players are getting more chances in the sim and because their shooting %'s are higher-they are scoring. But I think the lesser guys are getting too much freedom in the sim. Most of those guys dont have the stamina ratings to get the ice time they might be getting. I just think that the Offense may still need to come down a bit, Shooting % at least..BUT, I dont know how you do that without affecting the game. You would know better than me Glenn.
It is fun to see some of the lesser guys get some big goals..but I think it should be investigated to see if they are outproducing known point producing players. Afterall, point producers-should produce points. Bangers should produce-hits, and so on...
A Comparison Example: I have 5 guys, Datsyuk ( 70 Pts.0.88% ) 80 games played In FHL 5g, 4a- 9 pts 11 games Getzlaf(69 Pts 1.05%) 66 games played 3g, 2a- 5 pts " Perry( 76 Pts 0.93%) 82 games played 2g, 5a- 7 pts " Iginla( 69 Pts, 0.84%) 82 games played 3g, 3a- 6 pts " Mike Green( 76 Pts, 1.01 ) 70 games played 5g, 7a- 12 pts*** " ...these guys cant get anything going for some reason...
BUT: Hendricks ( 16 pts, 0.29 ) 56 games played 6g, 5a- 11 pts 13 games David Jones ( 16 pts, 0.70 ) 23 games played 5g, 5a- 10 pts 10 M Bergeron ( 34 Pts, 0.57 ) 60 games played 1g, 8a 9 pts *(+18) 12 For that matter, the entire New England team is on FIRE!
Maybe, these guys are just on a hot streak, but I dont think the logic of the sim allows for hot and cold streaks.
Something is off, but I dont know exactly what it is....but my guess, has something to do with puck possesion, play making, stamina and fortitude.
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Nov 12, 2010 14:47:53 GMT -5
Two things I was counting on from this engine when I drafted:
1. Skilled centers with good passing and overall offense SHOULD be able to get the puck to wingers of middling quality and still produce decent goal production. This isn't happening so far. I drafted borderline 3-4 line NHL wingers and hoped that my 2 franchise centers would be able to get them the pucks enough to chip in. Not working....
2. The subcatagories of Shot blocking, hitting ect are not rated high enough or do not factor adequetly in the game flow. Shot blocking is HUGE in real hockey and even an average d-man or forward who is gifted at technical shot blocking can play a huge role in winning hockey - Blair Betts, Laperriere...
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Nov 12, 2010 14:51:21 GMT -5
Agreed, You said I was trying to say...ONLY I say it with alot of hot air....
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Nov 12, 2010 15:30:00 GMT -5
Soon, so shall you pass us, as has the rest !!! I think one of the bugs, which I imagine will be hard to fix is this.....I will say it in simple terms, because I am a simpleton and dont know how it can be attempted.... There are players scoring that do not own an all around game. The logic is making them appear as though they are all around players. I dont think the guys that are producing in the FHL, will/have produced on a regular basis in the NHL, the way they are now. I looked at few teams and players....and its obvious that a guy who has a Shooting % that is high is going to score..thats a no brainer, but I think that is an area that may need to be lowered. For ex..Nik Antropov has a 9 out of 10 Player Card, which would make him a Top 10 player in the FHL. Hardly what I think he is, IMO....He doesnt own an all around game, his skating is slow, doesnt hit, doesnt back check...Logically, I would think against another FHL team that has a true elite Forward, he would be a minus player. Same goes for Marc Andre-Bergeron....this guy is the surprise of the FHL in my opinion. He was a 6-7 dman for Montreal because he was more of a liability and was released by them. ....I thk the defense players that have a decent shooting percentage are outproducing offense minded players because they have more shots on goal....but the offense minded players arent getting the chances that the lesser players are getting. The lesser players are getting more chances in the sim and because their shooting %'s are higher-they are scoring. But I think the lesser guys are getting too much freedom in the sim. Most of those guys dont have the stamina ratings to get the ice time they might be getting. I just think that the Offense may still need to come down a bit, Shooting % at least..BUT, I dont know how you do that without affecting the game. You would know better than me Glenn. It is fun to see some of the lesser guys get some big goals..but I think it should be investigated to see if they are outproducing known point producing players. Afterall, point producers-should produce points. Bangers should produce-hits, and so on... A Comparison Example: I have 5 guys, Datsyuk ( 70 Pts.0.88% ) 80 games played In FHL 5g, 4a- 9 pts 11 games Getzlaf(69 Pts 1.05%) 66 games played 3g, 2a- 5 pts " Perry( 76 Pts 0.93%) 82 games played 2g, 5a- 7 pts " Iginla( 69 Pts, 0.84%) 82 games played 3g, 3a- 6 pts " Mike Green( 76 Pts, 1.01 ) 70 games played 5g, 7a- 12 pts*** " ...these guys cant get anything going for some reason... BUT: Hendricks ( 16 pts, 0.29 ) 56 games played 6g, 5a- 11 pts 13 games David Jones ( 16 pts, 0.70 ) 23 games played 5g, 5a- 10 pts 10 M Bergeron ( 34 Pts, 0.57 ) 60 games played 1g, 8a 9 pts *(+18) 12 For that matter, the entire New England team is on FIRE! Maybe, these guys are just on a hot streak, but I dont think the logic of the sim allows for hot and cold streaks. Something is off, but I dont know exactly what it is....but my guess, has something to do with puck possesion, play making, stamina and fortitude. This is a quick note to address both your and Phil's comments. A valid statistical analysis cannot ever, I mean ever, be done on the results of 1 game in a 82 game season. The same can be said about 1 players stat line 10 games into the season. I remember like it was yesterday, although it was more than 25 years ago now where my Logic Professor stated "You cannot and should not use anecdotal evidence to support an argument." In my eye, statistics are the same. They need to be viewed at the 40,000 foot level to determine if they are working as desired and not at the tree tops. In any true statistical analysis there are going to be outliers. I saw something in the paper here where some person just had their 115 birthday. Some might say this is not possible because the median life expectancy is 75 years. But nonetheless, she lives and breathes. Phil, I did check the blocked shots for the leaders last year and the absolute best guy averaged 3 a game. When you dropped down to 5th and 6th best it was like 2.5. Review the FHL stats and take a look at how your guys compare. I think you will find that to date, these numbers and how they compare to the NHL are bang on. Chris, as I mentioned before the Shooting percentage is just part of the shot equation, How often the player shoots being the other. Antropov is below average in the number of shots taken as a 4. The argument could be made that gives his a 6.5 shooting composite. Also, please be aware that a player with a 9 doesn't mean he scores 90% of the time her shoots. If he is taking the shot from in the slot he may have a base (unadjusted by def here for arguments sake) or 33% chance to score. Someone who is a 5 ShotPct might have a base of 28% for a shot from the same spot. Now to determine if he scores or not he would have had to pass the "doesheshoot" random number in which case he would have maybe a 40% to shoot (given his 4 rating) as opposed to a 50% for a guy who shoots more and thus has a higher shoot rating. The engine uses 36 distinct positions on the ice to determine percentage chance to shoot and percentage chance to score. It is a very complex animal that doesn't have dials hanging off of it for defense and offense where I can just adjust the defense up a notch or two. I think the changes we made a few days ago has lowered shots to about an average of 30 per team which seems reasonable. I hope this explains a little the way that the engine works. The bottom line is I remain open to refining and making the engine better and I value your guys feedback in the process moving forward.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Nov 12, 2010 16:02:53 GMT -5
Glenn, Whoa, I didnt realize how complex the engine is, but I knew it would be over my head...I definitely believe you...You did clear up some points for me though.
Yes, I realize that it is only a 10-12 games in, but I thought these issues should be addressed before it is 20-30, 30-40 games in, etc...
I am no Stat major, but the law of probability does come to mind. Getzlaf, Datsyuk, Perry and Iginla alone yield on Avg, 1000 shots per season. I hope, HOPE, that they score a decent percent of those shots.
But, in any case, my SALE SALE SALE post is still on....as you did clear up my thoughts that guys like Jones, Byron, Negrin, Hendricks, Alberts will stand the SAME chances to score points as will Datsyuk, Perry, Kessel, Thornton...
One more qusetion: does the game engine sim the Offense team/team in possesion of puck against ALL players on the ice? Or does it sim them against only the Defense. In other words, is the Offense/Forwards ( 3 forwards ) playing against the Defense ( 2 dmen and Goalie )? As if only a Half Court Game so to speak.
Because of my lack of true 4th line GRIT guys, I am forced to roll 4 lines of diminishing Offensive talent. I try putting a defensive player on each line to help curtail some of the flow the opposite way. Therefore, I would think that would wear down other teams that have a traditional one true line of grit when they have to play against 4 lines of offense...Matchups dont seem to matter IMO in this engine....It seems that lesser quality players are possesing and maintaining the puck getting better scoring chances because of an OVERALL AVG RATING ON DEFENSE for OPPOSING TEAM.
It seems, and I could be wrong, very wrong, that because of a defensive shortfall, even guys who are less skilled are seemingly having their way. I dont see that the stamina shortfalls are having an impact. My question is: Is/Does Stamina and Fortitude actually have an impact thus far? Are those categories weighted properly? Thats all I am asking....Because I dont dont see the numbers YET, that I would expect to see....and I am seeing FAR TOO MANY numbers that I wouldnt expect AGAINST MY TEAM.....Quick Goals, Penalties, Goals Against, Lack of Offense, Rookies and Bangers Scoring at Will Against, Call Ups Scoring against me, etc....
It may very well be because of my OVERALL DEFENSE RATING...I dont know, Im looking for answers so I can make/try to make my team better or at least address the issues for the upcoming draft. Just my point of view....AND No, I never took, Calculus, or anything higher than Algebra....Duh!
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Nov 12, 2010 19:32:13 GMT -5
Glenn, Whoa, I didnt realize how complex the engine is, but I knew it would be over my head...I definitely believe you...You did clear up some points for me though. Yes, I realize that it is only a 10-12 games in, but I thought these issues should be addressed before it is 20-30, 30-40 games in, etc... I am no Stat major, but the law of probability does come to mind. Getzlaf, Datsyuk, Perry and Iginla alone yield on Avg, 1000 shots per season. I hope, HOPE, that they score a decent percent of those shots. But, in any case, my SALE SALE SALE post is still on....as you did clear up my thoughts that guys like Jones, Byron, Negrin, Hendricks, Alberts will stand the SAME chances to score points as will Datsyuk, Perry, Kessel, Thornton... One more qusetion: does the game engine sim the Offense team/team in possesion of puck against ALL players on the ice? Or does it sim them against only the Defense. In other words, is the Offense/Forwards ( 3 forwards ) playing against the Defense ( 2 dmen and Goalie )? As if only a Half Court Game so to speak. Because of my lack of true 4th line GRIT guys, I am forced to roll 4 lines of diminishing Offensive talent. I try putting a defensive player on each line to help curtail some of the flow the opposite way. Therefore, I would think that would wear down other teams that have a traditional one true line of grit when they have to play against 4 lines of offense...Matchups dont seem to matter IMO in this engine....It seems that lesser quality players are possesing and maintaining the puck getting better scoring chances because of an OVERALL AVG RATING ON DEFENSE for OPPOSING TEAM. It seems, and I could be wrong, very wrong, that because of a defensive shortfall, even guys who are less skilled are seemingly having their way. I dont see that the stamina shortfalls are having an impact. My question is: Is/Does Stamina and Fortitude actually have an impact thus far? Are those categories weighted properly? Thats all I am asking....Because I dont dont see the numbers YET, that I would expect to see....and I am seeing FAR TOO MANY numbers that I wouldnt expect AGAINST MY TEAM.....Quick Goals, Penalties, Goals Against, Lack of Offense, Rookies and Bangers Scoring at Will Against, Call Ups Scoring against me, etc.... It may very well be because of my OVERALL DEFENSE RATING...I dont know, Im looking for answers so I can make/try to make my team better or at least address the issues for the upcoming draft. Just my point of view....AND No, I never took, Calculus, or anything higher than Algebra....Duh! Chris, The engine uses both a composite off and def score for players on the ice (this is calculated at the beginning of every pulse/play) as well as individual (1 on 1) matchups for each play. A players success in any action shoot, shot on goal, pass, skating is determined by a base of several 3 dimensional matrices modified up or down based upon all players on the ice as well as head to head matchups. It might be best to have a upcoming teamspeak chat because it is much easier to say than to write. The current version of the engine does not factor stamina into the game. The reason for this is that because the computer is playing the games head to head, it is not going to cheat and double/triple shift better players. It does use the fortitude heavily however and the more that a player plays in a game directly impacts his chance of injury. That is true for all players however the impact for a guy with high fortitude is less because of the base chance to get an injury. Lets say the base chance for a player with a fortitude of 9 is 1% (I think that is what it is with Fort 10 players base being .5%). If the player plays 1.15 times what the normal player plays (this is where total time on ice plays in) then the 9 Fort guy would have a 1.15% chance of getting banged up. If we look at a Fort 2 guy who may have a base of 30%, his 30 * 1.15 = 34.5% chance of injury. Significantly higher based on the base that we were starting from. The lower fortitude guys days missed and potential for LT serious injury is much higher as well. Oh well, I am off for a bit right now and will be back on to run the 10:00 batch of games.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Nov 13, 2010 1:55:07 GMT -5
Glenn, once again you are on top of things! I wish I had known some of this info Pre-Draft though. I drafted all of my players to be able to play with "the best" possible player available. I took guys that had Fortitude and Stamina, as well as decent offensive capability. Unfortunately, I was shut out of the defensive guys I wanted.
But, I think it sucks that a guy that has a 3 Stamina is going against an 8 or 9 guy, and it isnt affecting the 3 guys play...He should be sucking wind and missing shifts with such a rating.
As far as the Fortitude goes, I pretty much realized that was going ...and I figure guys like David Jones days are numbered since he is a 3 Fortitude. But I was a bit surprised that Sarich ( a 7 Fort. Rating ) is out until next April with a LT Injury.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Nov 13, 2010 8:01:53 GMT -5
Glenn, once again you are on top of things! I wish I had known some of this info Pre-Draft though. I drafted all of my players to be able to play with "the best" possible player available. I took guys that had Fortitude and Stamina, as well as decent offensive capability. Unfortunately, I was shut out of the defensive guys I wanted. But, I think it sucks that a guy that has a 3 Stamina is going against an 8 or 9 guy, and it isnt affecting the 3 guys play...He should be sucking wind and missing shifts with such a rating. As far as the Fortitude goes, I pretty much realized that was going ...and I figure guys like David Jones days are numbered since he is a 3 Fortitude. But I was a bit surprised that Sarich ( a 7 Fort. Rating ) is out until next April with a LT Injury. Here is my thinking surrounding stamina and why I added it only for the head to head games which will be coming at some point down the pike. All guys that played int he NHL are professional athletes and have great stamina (well all except John Sim maybe). The reason they play 6 minutes a game versus 20 is their skill set. 4th liners can play a regular shift if their skills warranted but most times they do not. The truly exceptional guys (Pitkannen, Pronger, etc.) are really the only exceptions and are truly gifted stamina wise. If a guy in the NHL is good and putting up numbers his stamina and fortitude will reflect that. If he doesn't put up numbers his card should reflect that as well. If we have a case where a guy's card looks too good given the GP and stats he has, let me know and I will review the way thee numbers get assigned.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Nov 13, 2010 14:12:11 GMT -5
Yeah, I dont see the logic in a line of Getzlaf, Iginla and Datsyuk going up against the likes of Koivu, Knuble and Malone and coming up -2 and only mustering 5 SOG...And I mean I like Koivu, but I have been going against lesser lines and coming up worse than minus 2......
My team either gets 38 SOG and 1 or 2 goals and give up 6 goals on 24 against, OR we get 22 SOG and 1 or 2 goals and give up 4-5 against on 33 shots....But we always manage to get 4-5 penalties...Our goalies cant stop a beach ball....Its disgraceful....Datsyuk, Getzlaf and Perry are woefully minus and are going to be dealt away for peanuts because we cant outproduce Matt Hendricks, Paul Byron, Andrew Alberts.....VERY SAD! We have no defense.....But we have decent offense, and the puck still doesnt go in!!!!
So, my trade of these once considered elite players to other teams will undoubtedly be my undoing, but I cant keep them because theyre useless! Damned if I do, Damned if I dont! Someone is about to become a juggernaut!
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Nov 13, 2010 15:09:13 GMT -5
Yeah, I dont see the logic in a line of Getzlaf, Iginla and Datsyuk going up against the likes of Koivu, Knuble and Malone and coming up -2 and only mustering 5 SOG...And I mean I like Koivu, but I have been going against lesser lines and coming up worse than minus 2...... My team either gets 38 SOG and 1 or 2 goals and give up 6 goals on 24 against, OR we get 22 SOG and 1 or 2 goals and give up 4-5 against on 33 shots....But we always manage to get 4-5 penalties...Our goalies cant stop a beach ball....Its disgraceful....Datsyuk, Getzlaf and Perry are woefully minus and are going to be dealt away for peanuts because we cant outproduce Matt Hendricks, Paul Byron, Andrew Alberts.....VERY SAD! We have no defense.....But we have decent offense, and the puck still doesnt go in!!!! So, my trade of these once considered elite players to other teams will undoubtedly be my undoing, but I cant keep them because theyre useless! Damned if I do, Damned if I dont! Someone is about to become a juggernaut! Just so you know, the engines starts the game head to head line 1 versus line 1 but this will quickly change as the game starts and PPs are awarded. Just to be clear, the engine does not put each teams lines out there 1 for 1 but dynamically assigns lines based on situation (PP/SH/ES) and available players freshness. This should be reflected in each teams Line time on the ice versus their counterpart on the other team.
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