|
Post by Scott-New York on Nov 30, 2018 16:17:35 GMT -5
Hmm, a rookie platooning with a veteran and beating him isn't realistic? Actually, that's been going on since the dawn of the NHL. Don't get me wrong, I completely understand your point, Owen, but actually Talbot is better than Georgiev as Glenn pointed out just as a true top six forward is better than a bottom six guy with better OFF and DEF card values.
|
|
|
Post by Phil-Cornwall on Nov 30, 2018 16:25:51 GMT -5
"The program that generates the cards uses the better of save pct or GAA"
oh my. Save% should be rated 1.5X more than GAA.
GAA = more of a product of general team defense
Save% = much closer to how good a goalie really is.
|
|
|
Post by Chris-Suffolk on Nov 30, 2018 16:41:26 GMT -5
How are goalie stamina numbers figured? Why is Georgiev a 7 when he played significantly less games? That's the issue I see. The card values are based on stats and the fact is, a .918 save % is significantly higher than a .908 in this case. I understand the argument with this is sample size but it's always been this way and works the same with skaters as I pointed out. Just because it has "always been this way" doesnt justify that it is the correct way. I made this same arguement when Bernier was an AHL rookie and he had sample sized NHL experience, but had a better than most, GHL goalie card, the next season...UNREALISTIC! Like I said....MY SOLUTION for AHL goaltender cards, should be that we use their #of games played as the criteria for their use. For ex: Georgiev played 10 NHL games. Therefore, he can only suit up for 10 GHL games!!! Done! If he plays more, his Fortitude goes down 1 point for each game he goes over that limit. And, to second Owen's point. This is not meant to attack Dane...this is just an example that keeps reoccurring season after season without being addressed. IF, we make GM's accountable for making sure that they have the PROPER # of Starting and Backup capable goalies on their team, it will help our league overall. Those teams who have a plethora, have leverage for trading to a team in need! Supply vs Demand.
|
|
|
Post by Scott-New York on Nov 30, 2018 16:45:36 GMT -5
I just don't see it as a possibility to blanket the goalies in this way. It's physically impossible, the logistics just don't work to make it possible that all 31 teams have equal talent among goalies to make that a possibility, we would almost literally have to mirror each team in the GHL with an NHL teams goaltending roster.
|
|
|
Post by Chris-Suffolk on Nov 30, 2018 16:59:22 GMT -5
Hmm, a rookie platooning with a veteran and beating him isn't realistic? Actually, that's been going on since the dawn of the NHL. Don't get me wrong, I completely understand your point, Owen, but actually Talbot is better than Georgiev as Glenn pointed out just as a true top six forward is better than a bottom six guy with better OFF and DEF card values. There are some errors here as well Scott. As Matt-Syracuse had asked last week about Kadri, without an answer as of yet. Kadri's card has Two "O's" on his defensive side!!! A Zero for "Deny Space" and a Zero for "Stick Check"....Let's be honest, he isn't the Best defensive forward, but his role was quite a bit more defensive as soon as Babcock got there. A Zero in those categories is quite hard to fathom. In other words, there are still issues with the Card Generating process, as it relates to statistical data. Just because, this is the way we have done anything, isn't the correct answer. And, I know you don't mean it that way...But, isn't it about time we start tackling some of the issues, and stop BS'ing about it. For the last two seasons since I came back, I have sat back while the same people have discussed issues. But that's all that ever happens...is discussing. Cmon boys...Let's get it done already. Enough of the post after post after post with no headway....Let's get somewhere. DISCLAIMER: I'm not saying this to be funny with anyone here. You guys are all knowledgeable hockey people. All of you are smart. Opinions do not matter. This is a Statistical Data driven simulation with many variables. But the sim cannot be proper unles we plug in the CORRECT data to help it run. PS.....WHEN are we going to have a Minor League ??!!!! LOL!
|
|
|
Post by Chris-Suffolk on Nov 30, 2018 17:01:09 GMT -5
I just don't see it as a possibility to blanket the goalies in this way. It's physically impossible, the logistics just don't work to make it possible that all 31 teams have equal talent among goalies to make that a possibility, we would almost literally have to mirror each team in the GHL with an NHL teams goaltending roster. Not impossible! So, do we just allow AHL talent to = NHL talent?! Then why not allow AHL fwd's to be = to NHL fwd's? Make the AHL Goalies "Less Than" NHL Goalies. That will make teams build their teams thru draft or trade. JUST like the real world.
|
|
|
Post by Scott-New York on Nov 30, 2018 17:09:14 GMT -5
I agree completely with the 2nd paragraph, we do talk a lot about issues and very seldom do we accomplish solutions. I think that is in part due to those resolutions fall on the shoulders of only one person and that person cannot be 100% dedicated to little fixes all the time. Just doing what needs to be done to keep this masterpiece running takes a lot of his time. Yes, some issues like this exist, but I'm not sure how much work and extra time it would take to resolve them but I can imagine as in the past I've helped with quite a bit of research to save him time.
|
|
|
Post by Owen-Moncton on Nov 30, 2018 17:33:50 GMT -5
It's simple, really. Whatever your final rating, weigh it against number of NHL games played and for each block of 5 games under the minimum for rookie status (25) you knock off a FORT and a STAM point, since we arent interested in making changes to TECH/ATHL ratings. A rookie shouldnt be able to play more than 33% of what a starter does, and to Scott's argument, the top 6/bottom 6 idea doesnt wash, because Georgie is playing what would be the equivalent of top 6 ice.
|
|
|
Post by Scott-New York on Nov 30, 2018 17:50:13 GMT -5
Perreault played many GHL years of top six ice time despite not being a top six NHL forward, it's not an argument, it's a fact about card creation
|
|
|
Post by Owen-Moncton on Nov 30, 2018 18:16:59 GMT -5
Perrault had many years of NHL experience as well. Georgie had 10 games at the time his card was created.
|
|
|
Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Nov 30, 2018 18:30:54 GMT -5
Again, its like beating my head against a brick wall but I will say it again as it appears it is still not being received.
Stamina as far as goalies go is not how far and fast they can ride a bicycle. It means how many games they can play in a season/in a row/in a certain number of days without their performance dipping (lower numbers) as they turn from blue to green to yellow to orange to red.
|
|
|
Post by Scott-New Jersey on Nov 30, 2018 18:59:43 GMT -5
Are AHL games weighted the same as NHL games?
|
|
|
Post by Chris-Suffolk on Nov 30, 2018 19:40:02 GMT -5
Again, its like beating my head against a brick wall but I will say it again as it appears it is still not being received. Stamina as far as goalies go is not how far and fast they can ride a bicycle. It means how many games they can play in a season/in a row/in a certain number of days without their performance dipping (lower numbers) as they turn from blue to green to yellow to orange to red. Glenn, Boobalaa, It's not that we don't understand what you're saying. It's more that we don't agree with it. At this point, Georgiev has already played 10 GHL games. His NHL career ( 2017-2018 ) he played 10 NHL games. Hamilton has played 27 games. It's pretty much a lock that Georgiev will play an addt'l 10 more games by this seasons end, barring an injury or managerial move. That's 10 more games ( at minimum ) that he should be capable of playing IN at the PRO level. That's what I'm saying!!! And, this will be without HIS card taking a hit ( with Dane managing his goalies ). And again, NOTHING against Dane!
|
|
|
Post by Owen-Moncton on Nov 30, 2018 21:13:13 GMT -5
Glenn, I actually do get it. But the evidence shows that in the GHL, a goalie with 7/10 stamina can platoon or even play more than a tenured starter. Especially when they have 10/10 FORT. Not trying to be argumentative, but no matter how I look at this, it appears the system feels 10 games of NHL level experience warrants the creation of a card that is significantly better than a proven starter after an off-year.
How is stamina determined? Because if my guy sucked (he kinda did) then he doesnt warrant a 10 STAM rating. If the 10 was driven by body of work, then conversely georgie boy cant have 70% the stamina of Talbot after 10 games, because that would remain unproven. Think of body of work as our wingate test and you'd no doubt be inclined to agree. Talbot plays 80-85% of the season and hes a 10 STAM. AG plays 8% and he's a 7?? I dont see it, sorry.
Either his ability to perform when weighted against the increased resistance of stiffer competition suffers (ie STAM), or his TECH/ATHL abilities cannot be weighted equally against the best shooters in the game as in minor leagues. What were his numbers in the previous year vs this one? Can we look at that?
|
|
|
Post by Owen-Moncton on Nov 30, 2018 21:34:02 GMT -5
Here's another way to look at it:
Garret Sparks won a Calder Cup last year. His regular season GAA was 1.79. More importantly, his SV% was a sparkling .936. He won the "Baz" Trophy for best AHL goalie in the league. In the playoffs, he posted 2.22 GAA and a .915 SV% Most importantly, he took Curtis McILheney's job as the Leafs' backup and he has 4 wins and one loss with a GAA of 2.57 along with a .924 SV% . His card? 52-52. How do we arrive at the conclusion that after 10 games Georgie is a far superior asset with better technique and athleticism? Because clearly, irrespective of minor league body of work, a decent (not spectacular) run of 10 NHL games somehow vaults Georgie light years ahead of a goalie who I will argue, is further along than he is. Im not trying to pick this apart, I'm just really convinced that there are incongruencies here that once identified, can be fixed. Forget my guy for now, how is AG better than Sparks?
|
|