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Post by Jon-Seattle on Nov 30, 2022 22:31:53 GMT -5
Chris I'm not gunna lie I didn't include Samsanov because looking at statistics and pulling up your teams insanely talented roster scares the crap outa me lol.
That said I'm doing some aggregate stat compilation based on peoples current lineups and year to date stats. Not a perfect measure as about a third of the teams are missing a player or have an injury and people have played 2-3 more or less games than each other but the best I have right now and a fairly accurate assessment based on right now:
My teams stats:
Goals For - 21st best
Goals Against - 11th best
Aggregate offensive rating - 5th best (best in conference)
Aggregate Defensive rating - 3rd best (best in conference)
Skill rating - 9th best (2nd in conference)
Toughness - 9th best (2nd in conference)
Goalies:
Shesterkin
Record: 7-7-2
Save%: 0.910
GAA: 3.06
SO: 2
Team defense aggregate: 82.7
Opp goal Average: 3.9
Opp record average: 10 - 10 - 3
Allen
Record: 5-1-2
Save%: 0.929
GAA: 2.25
SO: 1
Team defense aggregate: 71.3
Opp goal Average: 3.94
Opp record average: 10 - 9.5 - 3
Allen is on the 35 end of a 35-65 goalie split. I have been manually changing my goalies based on stamina to keep Shesterkin as fresh as possible. the most goals shesterkin gave up in the NHL last year was 6 and it happened once. in a quarter of that time here he's let in 6 goals once this year (prior to tweak) and two 7 goal games (one of them happening last week after he had been given a game off so he could stay fresh, the other during the first game of the year, so not stamina related). What I'm saying is their strengths of schedule are near identical as are Opp goal average (negligable advantage to Shesterkin in these categories)
And since someone brought it up, my projected power rating last year was top three or something? Right now I'm sitting at 18th. Why is the play so drastically different from expected? Despite owning one of the best off and def aggregates, and I believe setting them up correctly, my PP is 24th and Pk is 30th. Once again something isnt adding up
Edit - I can add the spreadsheet that I filled in by hand of the team records and team aggregates if anyone actually wants it but I'm guessing Glenn probably has all that and likely more which would be more accurate so feel free to take some of these aggregate numbers with a grain of salt.
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Nov 30, 2022 23:05:09 GMT -5
So the goalie stuff makes sense that better cards have a better chance of stopping the shot as it's all based on card stats referenced against others. Point I was trying to make if there is a zone that gives too much of an advantage to the shooters the goalie card, even if great, becomes average compared to other goalies. It's hard to put into words but example below (way oversimplified) Let's say shooters get a 50% boost from zone 14. Using my two goalies Sim determines a shot is coming and going glove side Anderson Glove = 9 Lehner Glove = 5 Shooter's Percentage is 60 - With bonus 90 Under this Anderson should be better and has roughly even dice roll chance with the shooter. Lehner doesn't and stats should be worse. My theory is that if bonus is tilted too much in the shooter's favor the gap between goalies disappears (becomes more about luck) If that shooter in the above example had shot percent of 90 with a potential bonus could effectively be 135. At that point goalie stats don't matter much as neither goalie are all that likely to stop that shot. As the shooter bonus rises the difference in stats between those goalies (in that zone) should shrink until both goalies are theoretically tied at 0% sv per. Just looking through Andersen's stats got me thinking about this. It looks like 25 of his 54 goals allowed came from zone 14, if zone 14 is essentially a toss up no matter the goalie it could explain how average goalies are leading league in sv per (comes down to which teams keep it out of that zone more). Also the 25 out of 54 in zone 14 isn't that far off though. www.icydata.hockey/vizzes/shots/9 website that has goal location data from 2019 and earlier. Just a quick look our zone 14 accounts for roughly 35% of all NHL goals. I realized I went to far when as I was reading this, I thought, "I just want to see our GHL heat maps..." lol |
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Dec 1, 2022 8:04:36 GMT -5
More sortable metrics would go a long way into looking at the way this sim works:
Team hits
Team blocked shots
Team shots
and so on...
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Dec 1, 2022 10:02:40 GMT -5
So the goalie stuff makes sense that better cards have a better chance of stopping the shot as it's all based on card stats referenced against others. Point I was trying to make if there is a zone that gives too much of an advantage to the shooters the goalie card, even if great, becomes average compared to other goalies. It's hard to put into words but example below (way oversimplified) Let's say shooters get a 50% boost from zone 14. Using my two goalies Sim determines a shot is coming and going glove side Anderson Glove = 9 Lehner Glove = 5 Shooter's Percentage is 60 - With bonus 90 Under this Anderson should be better and has roughly even dice roll chance with the shooter. Lehner doesn't and stats should be worse. My theory is that if bonus is tilted too much in the shooter's favor the gap between goalies disappears (becomes more about luck) If that shooter in the above example had shot percent of 90 with a potential bonus could effectively be 135. At that point goalie stats don't matter much as neither goalie are all that likely to stop that shot. As the shooter bonus rises the difference in stats between those goalies (in that zone) should shrink until both goalies are theoretically tied at 0% sv per. Just looking through Andersen's stats got me thinking about this. It looks like 25 of his 54 goals allowed came from zone 14, if zone 14 is essentially a toss up no matter the goalie it could explain how average goalies are leading league in sv per (comes down to which teams keep it out of that zone more). Also the 25 out of 54 in zone 14 isn't that far off though. www.icydata.hockey/vizzes/shots/9 website that has goal location data from 2019 and earlier. Just a quick look our zone 14 accounts for roughly 35% of all NHL goals. Nice find on that heat map site Dane. Just for reference, here is the raw data from GHL games played since the 10/19 fix.  | IceLoc | GoalsScored | Pct | | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | | 3 | 1 | 0.0% | | 4 | 85 | 3.8% | | 5 | 106 | 4.7% | | 6 | 72 | 3.2% | | 7 | 96 | 4.3% | | 8 | 129 | 5.8% | | 9 | 82 | 3.7% | | 10 | 172 | 7.7% | | 11 | 468 | 20.9% | | 12 | 185 | 8.3% | | 13 | 38 | 1.7% | | 14 | 767 | 34.3% | | 15 | 33 | 1.5% |
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Dec 1, 2022 10:42:22 GMT -5
That's great info and looks fairly in line with the NHL in terms of goals scored by location.
Could we get the data on shots by location as well. Just want to see if something jumps out where Shooting percent is much higher in one zone than the other.
Don't get me wrong should be easier to score in zone 14 but if it's too easy could run into issue where it comes down to opportunity more than Goalie cards.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Dec 1, 2022 10:58:35 GMT -5
Chris I'm not gunna lie I didn't include Samsanov because looking at statistics and pulling up your teams insanely talented roster scares the crap outa me lol. That said I'm doing some aggregate stat compilation based on peoples current lineups and year to date stats. Not a perfect measure as about a third of the teams are missing a player or have an injury and people have played 2-3 more or less games than each other but the best I have right now and a fairly accurate assessment based on right now: My teams stats: Goals For - 21st best Goals Against - 11th best Aggregate offensive rating - 5th best (best in conference) Aggregate Defensive rating - 3rd best (best in conference) Skill rating - 9th best (2nd in conference) Toughness - 9th best (2nd in conference) Goalies: Shesterkin Record: 7-7-2 Save%: 0.910 GAA: 3.06 SO: 2 Team defense aggregate: 82.7 Opp goal Average: 3.9 Opp record average: 10 - 10 - 3 Allen Record: 5-1-2 Save%: 0.929 GAA: 2.25 SO: 1 Team defense aggregate: 71.3 Opp goal Average: 3.94 Opp record average: 10 - 9.5 - 3 Allen is on the 35 end of a 35-65 goalie split. I have been manually changing my goalies based on stamina to keep Shesterkin as fresh as possible. the most goals shesterkin gave up in the NHL last year was 6 and it happened once. in a quarter of that time here he's let in 6 goals once this year (prior to tweak) and two 7 goal games (one of them happening last week after he had been given a game off so he could stay fresh, the other during the first game of the year, so not stamina related). What I'm saying is their strengths of schedule are near identical as are Opp goal average (negligable advantage to Shesterkin in these categories) And since someone brought it up, my projected power rating last year was top three or something? Right now I'm sitting at 18th. Why is the play so drastically different from expected? Despite owning one of the best off and def aggregates, and I believe setting them up correctly, my PP is 24th and Pk is 30th. Once again something isnt adding up Edit - I can add the spreadsheet that I filled in by hand of the team records and team aggregates if anyone actually wants it but I'm guessing Glenn probably has all that and likely more which would be more accurate so feel free to take some of these aggregate numbers with a grain of salt. IMHO I think when we are looking at our goalies we should be focusing on their save percentage versus their GAA as we continue to evaluate the higher (now slightly so as opposed to earlier in the year) league goals per game. Also please remember that a current limitation of lineup strength is that it doesn't factor in lineup hole replacements so if there is a player missing from a line or d pairing in the pre-game view (where strengths are shown), both the line/d pairing and overall team off/def/toughness/skill will be lower than actual. It's important to note that this lowered score is only cosmetic as when the sim puts a guy in the lineup for the game, the factor would show a higher value. The projected team strength for next year doesn't take a teams projected defense ratings as those are much too complicated and the stats are not readily available to easily calculate these every night (PK time, Plus minus versus teams plus minus, etc.). It also only factors in guys that are already signed for next year and doesn't count RFA/UFAs in on the calc when projecting teams offensive strength. UFAs for sure in the previous sentence. These projections are completely different from the league power rankings discussed earlier in the thread and updated weekly. These are solid and based on each teams performance over the past 2 months. *edit - I can see where the projected strength might have been confusing as I hadn't updated the year on the header. That is projected strength for next year not this. I jotted down a note to code this to have the site automatically update the years moving forward. |
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Dec 1, 2022 11:08:08 GMT -5
That's great info and looks fairly in line with the NHL in terms of goals scored by location. Could we get the data on shots by location as well. Just want to see if something jumps out where Shooting percent is much higher in one zone than the other. Don't get me wrong should be easier to score in zone 14 but if it's too easy could run into issue where it comes down to opportunity more than Goalie cards. I don't currently track the shot on goal location unless it results in a goal. This is because all goals and penalties log where the shot that resulted in a goal/infraction took place. I am tossing a few ideas around in my noggin as to how difficult it would be to track these for each team per game and log that as well. My gut instinct is it wouldn't be too difficult to add and if I do add it, I may just want to add it add the player level so this level of detail could be tracked/reported at the lowest level as well as by team/game as well. |
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Dec 1, 2022 11:52:31 GMT -5
That's great info and looks fairly in line with the NHL in terms of goals scored by location. Could we get the data on shots by location as well. Just want to see if something jumps out where Shooting percent is much higher in one zone than the other. Don't get me wrong should be easier to score in zone 14 but if it's too easy could run into issue where it comes down to opportunity more than Goalie cards. I don't currently track the shot on goal location unless it results in a goal. This is because all goals and penalties log where the shot that resulted in a goal/infraction took place. I am tossing a few ideas around in my noggin as to how difficult it would be to track these for each team per game and log that as well. My gut instinct is it wouldn't be too difficult to add and if I do add it, I may just want to add it add the player level so this level of detail could be tracked/reported at the lowest level as well as by team/game as well. . The well run leagues of the sporting world, always test things out in their affiliated MINOR LEAGUE.  |
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Dec 1, 2022 14:54:19 GMT -5
YEA! TWO SIMS!!!
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Dec 1, 2022 16:52:38 GMT -5
One thing I wanted to point out Glenn is that I was referring to the projected team strengths from a few months ago prior to this season starting which had me somewhere in the top 3 I think. So the huge drop off seems incredibly odd. I also know that it is prior to draft and FA which can result in actual changes to team strength vs what was projected but I feel like I kept up in FA and elsewhere.
Also I understand the drawbacks of using the pregame projected aggregates which is why I tried to add a heavy caveat (I myself am missing a player due to injury) but from what I collected maybe a third of the teams had injuries. And off the top of my head maybe half the teams who had injuries hadn’t replaced the player in the lineup. Only one team was truly missing a ton of players though. I feel like there were 2 or 3 teams who could have given me a run for my money on some of those aggregates had their team been fully healthy (Colorado…) but not many
I guess what I am asking is what is the sim taking into account that I am missing? Is it just the randomness involved or am I truly lacking in certain categories, because I’m at a complete loss as to how this is working at this point and I almost wonder if some of my players are not linked to the right card or teams are somehow not being linked properly because (with all due respect to Garner) a team like Calgary I can just look and tell they should be competing for a lottery ticket. I mean they essentially don’t even have an NHL goalie on their roster and while he’s got some good players on offense he can’t roll out 3-4 lines and his defensive corps had a bad year for cards. But despite all that he’s sitting at second in my division. So can you explain how that teams performing so well and mine just isn’t? I know this goes a bit beyond the goalie question but maybe it’s somehow connected?
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Dec 1, 2022 17:02:58 GMT -5
That's great info and looks fairly in line with the NHL in terms of goals scored by location. Could we get the data on shots by location as well. Just want to see if something jumps out where Shooting percent is much higher in one zone than the other. Don't get me wrong should be easier to score in zone 14 but if it's too easy could run into issue where it comes down to opportunity more than Goalie cards. I don't currently track the shot on goal location unless it results in a goal. This is because all goals and penalties log where the shot that resulted in a goal/infraction took place. I am tossing a few ideas around in my noggin as to how difficult it would be to track these for each team per game and log that as well. My gut instinct is it wouldn't be too difficult to add and if I do add it, I may just want to add it add the player level so this level of detail could be tracked/reported at the lowest level as well as by team/game as well. That would be awesome, can never have too many stats haha |
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Dec 1, 2022 17:07:01 GMT -5
I outplayed (IMO) and had the *better* players and centainly the better 'tender, than Calgary and still lost - so there's that Jon.
Also,
Not touched on yet, but the line allocation percentage is bigger than we think, I'll guess. There hasn't been a total in-depth explanation of that mechanic, that I've ever seen.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Dec 1, 2022 18:01:21 GMT -5
I started tinkering with the 4th line Offense minutes and 3rd Pairing Defense minutes last season. I still tinker with their times this season. You can look at the minutes played after the games to see which GM's are doing that. My 4th line is weak this year, so I have been playing my top 3 lines mostly.
That there, is a secret shared!
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Post by Brenden-Oregon on Dec 1, 2022 18:31:11 GMT -5
One thing I wanted to point out Glenn is that I was referring to the projected team strengths from a few months ago prior to this season starting which had me somewhere in the top 3 I think. So the huge drop off seems incredibly odd. I also know that it is prior to draft and FA which can result in actual changes to team strength vs what was projected but I feel like I kept up in FA and elsewhere. Also I understand the drawbacks of using the pregame projected aggregates which is why I tried to add a heavy caveat (I myself am missing a player due to injury) but from what I collected maybe a third of the teams had injuries. And off the top of my head maybe half the teams who had injuries hadn’t replaced the player in the lineup. Only one team was truly missing a ton of players though. I feel like there were 2 or 3 teams who could have given me a run for my money on some of those aggregates had their team been fully healthy (Colorado…) but not many I guess what I am asking is what is the sim taking into account that I am missing? Is it just the randomness involved or am I truly lacking in certain categories, because I’m at a complete loss as to how this is working at this point and I almost wonder if some of my players are not linked to the right card or teams are somehow not being linked properly because (with all due respect to Garner) a team like Calgary I can just look and tell they should be competing for a lottery ticket. I mean they essentially don’t even have an NHL goalie on their roster and while he’s got some good players on offense he can’t roll out 3-4 lines and his defensive corps had a bad year for cards. But despite all that he’s sitting at second in my division. So can you explain how that teams performing so well and mine just isn’t? I know this goes a bit beyond the goalie question but maybe it’s somehow connected? You’re 10-9-3 having played a pretty difficult schedule so far. Calgary is 13-8-3 having played a relatively easy schedule. |
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Dec 2, 2022 19:32:01 GMT -5
One of the Top Goalies in the GHL gives up 6 goals (at last count) tonight!!!
This shit is fucking broken
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