Post by Phil-Cornwall on Nov 22, 2013 12:35:07 GMT -5
The value of draft picks in our simulation /keeper league is a little skewed compared to the NHL and here's why:
In the NHL there is a LOT more youth developement and time to recoup or invest draft pick investments. The FHL is different. We are on a much more abbreviated timetable and things happen 'quicker' here than they do in the NHL. As savvy Syracuse GM Matt D. put it, the FHL operates on a 'crystal ball' game mechanic. Since we are always a year behind the NHL in terms of real-time stats used to produce our FHL player cards, we get a big preview and the ability to rapidly project who is going to be good...or not so good.
The crystal ball effect, coupled with rookie signing contracts that are larger than the NHL scale and of less years in length, effect our draft picks' value thusly:
1st rounders - The least difference here, meaning that our FHL 1st rounders still have the most bang for the buck, value and appreciation.
Strong value. No worries.
2nd rounders - a slight expected drop off, but again, our FHL comparison and worth still puts these picks in the right 'value ballpark'.
3rd rounders - here is where we see the beginning of the huge drop-off. These FHL picks are noticeably less valuable than their NHL counterparts for all the reasons stated above. A 3rd round FHL pick has a very much smaller chance of being valuable compared to an NHL 3rd rounder -for our simulation purposes.
4th and 5th rounders - FHL picks at this level should be considered all but worthless until we get a minor league system going. Not only do they NOT ever pan out into any semblance of use for our FHL purposes, but the are even a one-two punch in terms of bad value as the initial contract monies assigned to them add up and their FHL cards are most often never better than a 100K player. They are almost always a CAP suck.
Now there are always exceptions to all this, and I'm sure we can find a couple 4-5th rounders that are playing on lines right now but in talking with other GM's, it's my belief that our FHL late rounders are not very valuable at all, at present.
In the NHL there is a LOT more youth developement and time to recoup or invest draft pick investments. The FHL is different. We are on a much more abbreviated timetable and things happen 'quicker' here than they do in the NHL. As savvy Syracuse GM Matt D. put it, the FHL operates on a 'crystal ball' game mechanic. Since we are always a year behind the NHL in terms of real-time stats used to produce our FHL player cards, we get a big preview and the ability to rapidly project who is going to be good...or not so good.
The crystal ball effect, coupled with rookie signing contracts that are larger than the NHL scale and of less years in length, effect our draft picks' value thusly:
1st rounders - The least difference here, meaning that our FHL 1st rounders still have the most bang for the buck, value and appreciation.
Strong value. No worries.
2nd rounders - a slight expected drop off, but again, our FHL comparison and worth still puts these picks in the right 'value ballpark'.
3rd rounders - here is where we see the beginning of the huge drop-off. These FHL picks are noticeably less valuable than their NHL counterparts for all the reasons stated above. A 3rd round FHL pick has a very much smaller chance of being valuable compared to an NHL 3rd rounder -for our simulation purposes.
4th and 5th rounders - FHL picks at this level should be considered all but worthless until we get a minor league system going. Not only do they NOT ever pan out into any semblance of use for our FHL purposes, but the are even a one-two punch in terms of bad value as the initial contract monies assigned to them add up and their FHL cards are most often never better than a 100K player. They are almost always a CAP suck.
Now there are always exceptions to all this, and I'm sure we can find a couple 4-5th rounders that are playing on lines right now but in talking with other GM's, it's my belief that our FHL late rounders are not very valuable at all, at present.
