GHL Analytics

[Lance-Pittsburgh]

NOTE: I don't claim to be an analytics expert.  I compiled this so I could delve into the sim's inner workings a bit more.  Feel free to comment freely on any trends you see that I may have missed.





Luckiest Teams

New Jersey
With Bobrovsky on your roster, I’m not sure you can say you’re lucky when your team leads the league in SV% so New Jersey’s high PDO makes sense in that regard. The Hawks sport a SH% that is slightly below average, so it’s conceivable that this team can only get better. Scary.

Boston
The best team in the league won’t be on top for long. Unlike New Jersey, whose goaltending is elite, the Bears have Raanta who is playing beyond his ken. That’s not to say Raanta isn’t good -- his card is 75/76 -- but his .953 SV% can only go down.

Montreal
The Maroons have ridden Price to 4-3-1 start, rightfully keep The Hamburglar on the bench. A middle-of-the-road Shot Differential and above-average SH% will see Montreal regress a bit as the season wears on.

Detroit
The Mustangs are the beneficiaries of some superb netminding from Halak, who is sporting some career numbers. Those numbers are not sustainable, which would see Detroit fall from the top spot in the Patrick.

Alaska
The Polar Bears have relied on Ville Husso and Darcy Kuemper to keep the puck out of the net, and so far those two have excelled. If Alaska continues to outshoot opponents, they will likely retain their high standing; if not, then look for the Polar Bears to fall quickly.


Unluckiest Teams

Syracuse
Frederik Andersen should be better -- and when he is, the Blazers will find themselves a power in the Smythe.

New York
Copy and paste from Syracuse, but change “Frederik Andersen” to “Cam Talbot”. Teams live and die by their goaltending, it would seem.

Hartford
The champions should not be at the bottom of the standings. Yes, they’re getting outshot, but by slim margins. When the Whalers give Ryan Miller starting duties on a full-time basis, expect to see them return to the win column.

Chicago
With Cam Ward and Jeff Zatkoff splitting duty early this season, it likely makes sense for the Huron to have fourth-lowest SV% in the league. The Shot Differential is cause for concern, so if Chicago can start leveling out the shot count, they will find their fate change.

Philadelphia
This is scary. While not a stellar duo, Vasilevskiy and Bernier should be better than they are. And with the Pharoahs’ high Shot Differential and below average SH%, one would expect Philadelphia to be a lot better than they currently are.

[Lance-Pittsburgh]

And a brain fart put this thread in the wrong sub-forum. Ugh.

[Glenn-Philadelphia]

Great stuff Lance. I can move this into the forum of your choosing. Just let me know where you would like it to live.

[Lance-Pittsburgh]

I meant to put it in the News and Press Release sub-forum.

[Lance-Pittsburgh]

It’s also worth noting that I manually inputted the data, so it may not be completely accurate.

[Lance-Pittsburgh]

Needed a little stress release after grading unit tests, so I decided to see if I could identify five GHL teams in need of a "simple" tweak to right the ship, so to speak.  Quick analysis pointed me to Seattle, Calgary, Adirondack, Toronto, and Edmonton.


Seattle
To this untrained eye, the numbers indicate that either a game-changing goaltender or solid stay-at-home defenseman would do wonders for the Mets.  With both SV% and SH% slightly above average, it seems odd to suggest a goaltending upgrade, but seven additional saves on the season would put the Mets at 5-5-0 on the season instead of 0-7-3 -- and near the top of the Patrick.

Calgary
Limit shots and the sky is the limit.  Connor Murphy can't block all the shots facing Rinne and Pickard.  Getting Zach Bogosian back in the line-up and adding a shutdown defender could help the Wranglers given the parity in the Patrick.

Adirondack
My initial response was that the Aces need some luck -- and maybe someone to kick Grubauer in the pants.  The sim has been unkind to Adirondack early on, and my suggestion here is to simply wait it out until the 20-25 game mark.

Toronto
An upgrade in the Top 6 puts Toronto on the fast-track to success.  Reversing the Shot Differential would take some of the pressure off Reimer, who is only nine hypothetical saves away from having the Toros at eight wins.

Edmonton
This is a clear cut case of a team in need of a better goaltender.  With a lot of solid talent up and down the lineup, the crease is decidedly bare.  Sporting the league's third-worst SV%, the Beavers don't have a lot of cap space, but are one trade away from catapulting to the top of the Patrick.

[Jon-Seattle]

Very nice assessment and I definitely think you have a good idea going here. Unfortunately I think my main issue outside of goaltending may be a lack of offense. Specifically I need some better wingers to hold possession, drive play, and most importantly score some goals. Barkov being out doesn't help and down years for cards such as Ekblad are not helping. Having Werenski as only a 60's defensive card is disappointing for a guy that was considered a legitimate contender for rookie of the year honors. I'm expecting that to improve this year, though defensive ratings seem to be a little less favorable to any defenseman with the slightest hint of offensive acumen. Should be a good rebound next year regardless.

Part of me is a little disappointed I didn't push for Dubnyk when I had the chance, another is looking at this winless streak and dreaming of a few good 1st round picks and a legit shot next year.

[Lance-Pittsburgh]

You’re likely right - obviously you know your team better than I do. Your Shot Differential is clearly a concern, so generating more offense would help with that, as you say.

[Lance-Pittsburgh]

After looking through the metrics that I collect, I wanted to share what I think are three of the more interesting teams in the G.


Cornwall is average by nearly all the metrics I collect.  The Crusaders are even in Goal Differential, have the league's mean PDO (which means they are incredibly close to the league's average SH% and SV%) and sit in the middle of the league standings.  I don't look at much data like this for other leagues, but I just find it amusing to see a team with so many average categories.  For what it's worth, Cornwall ranks in the tenth in Goals For and 26th in Goals Against.

Halifax owns the league's highest PDO, courtesy of their eye-popping SV%.  John Gibson has been worth his weight in gold, but Aaron Dell has been no slouch in goal, either.  An early-season injury to Oliver Bjorkstrand has done nothing to slow the Huskies, as this is a roster teeming with a dangerous combination of skill and youth.

New York own the league's lowest PDO, due solely to their dismal SV%.  While set for the future between the pipes, the combination of Hellebuyck and Talbot have not been stellar this season.  New York owns the league's highest Shot Differential (+219), but a comparatively pedestrian Goal Differential (+3).  An above-average SH% points to the need for a change in net if the Americans intend to make a splash this season; doing so would make them a statistically dangerous squad.