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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Dec 1, 2018 9:20:53 GMT -5
Here's another way to look at it: Garret Sparks won a Calder Cup last year. His regular season GAA was 1.79. More importantly, his SV% was a sparkling .936. He won the "Baz" Trophy for best AHL goalie in the league. In the playoffs, he posted 2.22 GAA and a .915 SV% Most importantly, he took Curtis McILheney's job as the Leafs' backup and he has 4 wins and one loss with a GAA of 2.57 along with a .924 SV% . His card? 52-52. How do we arrive at the conclusion that after 10 games Georgie is a far superior asset with better technique and athleticism? Because clearly, irrespective of minor league body of work, a decent (not spectacular) run of 10 NHL games somehow vaults Georgie light years ahead of a goalie who I will argue, is further along than he is. Im not trying to pick this apart, I'm just really convinced that there are incongruencies here that once identified, can be fixed. Forget my guy for now, how is AG better than Sparks? In regards to Sparks since he didn't play any regular season games last year in the NHL his card is maxed at AHL max values. In regards to his performance this year that is great and as we look at the previous years stats to build the cards all of his successes and failures this year will be reflected in next years cards. If we were to include this years stats to see who the better goalie is then I offer up as defense exhibit 1 Cam Talbot. He is sporting a gaudy 3.29 GAA with an .889 save percentage this year. In regards to AG, his NHL numbers would have been nerfed downwards if they were higher then the thresholds set for NHL games played. As he played 10 NHL games last year (which is a far cry greater than the 5 games you are referencing for Sparks this year) his performance is probably has a statistical margin of error within +/- 4-5% (I did stats way back in college and if someone has the actuarial background or the gumption to do so, they can calculate the actual number based on his stats). If anyone has access to some latent clairvoyant talent that could let me know how AG would have fared playing an additional 37 NHL games (and thus gaining the 7 stamina purely from the NHL) please speak up so we can tighten the screws on what is a pedestrian/average GHL goalie card. If I had to guess it would either go up or down 3 or 4 points but it could stay the same to. He was a known commodity as part of the draft last year. Anyone who had a pick could have grabbed him before #34 overall when Dane picked him up. His stamina and scores were known then. I am always looking to tighten the card generation process buy everyone needs to realize that there is no right answers in regards to absolute numbers for any GHL card. There are just degrees of accuracy and I think our cards have a high degree of accuracy. Arguing over a few points on again, and I cannot stress this enough, a average goalie card or two does not warrant a overhaul in regards to how cards are created.
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Post by Scott-New Jersey on Dec 1, 2018 10:35:18 GMT -5
Think the big issue is the 7 Stam... is there a way to weigh the AHL less when it comes to Stam.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Dec 1, 2018 10:41:39 GMT -5
we can however in the current card generation solution that is meant to show how many games he played all of last year. If he would have been a backup in the NHL all year his stamina would have been much lower.
That being the case we accurately reflect his stamina based on total games played and reduce/nerf his stats accordingly.
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Post by Owen-Moncton on Dec 1, 2018 12:12:06 GMT -5
Here's another way to look at it: Garret Sparks won a Calder Cup last year. His regular season GAA was 1.79. More importantly, his SV% was a sparkling .936. He won the "Baz" Trophy for best AHL goalie in the league. In the playoffs, he posted 2.22 GAA and a .915 SV% Most importantly, he took Curtis McILheney's job as the Leafs' backup and he has 4 wins and one loss with a GAA of 2.57 along with a .924 SV% . His card? 52-52. How do we arrive at the conclusion that after 10 games Georgie is a far superior asset with better technique and athleticism? Because clearly, irrespective of minor league body of work, a decent (not spectacular) run of 10 NHL games somehow vaults Georgie light years ahead of a goalie who I will argue, is further along than he is. Im not trying to pick this apart, I'm just really convinced that there are incongruencies here that once identified, can be fixed. Forget my guy for now, how is AG better than Sparks? In regards to Sparks since he didn't play any regular season games last year in the NHL his card is maxed at AHL max values. In regards to his performance this year that is great and as we look at the previous years stats to build the cards all of his successes and failures this year will be reflected in next years cards. If we were to include this years stats to see who the better goalie is then I offer up as defense exhibit 1 Cam Talbot. He is sporting a gaudy 3.29 GAA with an .889 save percentage this year. In regards to AG, his NHL numbers would have been nerfed downwards if they were higher then the thresholds set for NHL games played. As he played 10 NHL games last year (which is a far cry greater than the 5 games you are referencing for Sparks this year) his performance is probably has a statistical margin of error within +/- 4-5% (I did stats way back in college and if someone has the actuarial background or the gumption to do so, they can calculate the actual number based on his stats). If anyone has access to some latent clairvoyant talent that could let me know how AG would have fared playing an additional 37 NHL games (and thus gaining the 7 stamina purely from the NHL) please speak up so we can tighten the screws on what is a pedestrian/average GHL goalie card. If I had to guess it would either go up or down 3 or 4 points but it could stay the same to. He was a known commodity as part of the draft last year. Anyone who had a pick could have grabbed him before #34 overall when Dane picked him up. His stamina and scores were known then. I am always looking to tighten the card generation process buy everyone needs to realize that there is no right answers in regards to absolute numbers for any GHL card. There are just degrees of accuracy and I think our cards have a high degree of accuracy. Arguing over a few points on again, and I cannot stress this enough, an average goalie card or two does not warrant a overhaul in regards to how cards are created. Thanks for the in depth explanation, Glenn. The reason I referenced Sparks here is to illuminate the fact that the system apparently weighs ten average outings in the show as more valuable to a goalie's rating than 1. winning a Calder Cup championship; 2. winning goalie of the year; 3. posting significantly better numbers in the same year. I'm not asking you to factor his 5 starts this season at all. My point is those ten games cant be indicative of a much better card value than the AHL goalie of the year's card. That doesnt square for me.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Dec 1, 2018 14:58:39 GMT -5
I got Sateri, with 9 NHL games played last year with a card of 56-63 10 Fort and 6 Stam, and he's gonna git 50 Games in for me this season, at least.
He had a .911 NHL, .927 AHL and a .938 WC GAAvg and 5 SO. In all honesty, he shouldn't be worthy of an GHL pro card that allows, or makes he capable, of playing 50+ games...let alone 10. Simply because He DIDN"T play in NHL but 9 games.
Doesn't not make sense. How do we use real statistics to determine Fwd's and Defr's, but we use stats and a probability quotient to create a non-nonsensical goalie card whereas we are saying, "well, he's a goalie and he could potentially play in a nhl game so we're going to give him a card that allows him to play an entire season if we like." But, we don't do it for the other position players.
Drives me nuts! Realism? no.
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Post by Scott-New York on Dec 1, 2018 16:52:46 GMT -5
The one thing I don't understand is the realism argument. It's not realistic that a goalie can come up from the minors and play in the NHL?
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Dec 2, 2018 1:11:01 GMT -5
The one thing I don't understand is the realism argument. It's not realistic that a goalie can come up from the minors and play in the NHL? He sure can! But, we have made it a regular occurrence in the GHL, where an AHL goalie can be a GHL starter, and have a better card than NHL goalies just because his sample size of NHL action ( albeit 10 games ) morphs his card into a magic-sphere of make believe. It didn't happen, therefore, it is not real. Did Georgiev play 20 NHL games? Did Sateri play 20 NHL games? Answer is, No. But, both of them have player cards that make them GHL starters ( which is equal to NHL starters for us ) and capable of playing more than they did in real life - realism. If we can do it for the goalies, why can't we do it for the other positions? Just answer that question.
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Post by Scott-New York on Dec 2, 2018 5:38:42 GMT -5
Thank you, it's a stamina issue, not a ratings issue. Players come up from the AHL on a regular basis and compete at the NHL level. What we don't want is for that fact to lead to a team full of minor leaguers being used in the GHL. I completely understand the issue and I agree that these goalies shouldn't be able to start on a regular basis for us, but that isn't determined by their card values, that is stamina!
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Dec 2, 2018 9:16:34 GMT -5
Whatever the fix is, it needs to addressed after this season.
It's true, players get callups all the time. But, they don't hang around all season long and have the impact that our GHL allows. Granted, if the guy was a #1 draft and an impact player.
Especially for our goalies. Goaltenders have a huge impact on every game, not so true with other positions. Goalies play the full 60 minutes.
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Dec 2, 2018 9:18:26 GMT -5
I agree with Scott as it is more of a stamina issue, BUT almost nobody plays 'yellow' or 'red' goalies, certainly not down the stretch when it matters or in the big show, so again...still a problem - AHL goalies kicking ass.
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Post by Owen-Moncton on Dec 2, 2018 13:44:24 GMT -5
The one thing I don't understand is the realism argument. It's not realistic that a goalie can come up from the minors and play in the NHL? Is it realistic that after 10 NHL games he's a significantly better asset than the AHL goalie of the year who also won a Calder? Georgie's GAA in the AHL (where he spent most of the season) was 2.98 with a .908 SV% Sparks had a GAA of 1.79 and his SV% was .936, yet ten games in the show somehow makes him better than Sparks? That's realistic?
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Dec 2, 2018 13:48:11 GMT -5
^^ he's better for THIS season but maybe the answer to use ALL of the goalies stats from junior, WC, WJC, AHL, OHL ect ect and get an average ?
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Post by Owen-Moncton on Dec 2, 2018 13:50:40 GMT -5
Thank you, it's a stamina issue, not a ratings issue. Players come up from the AHL on a regular basis and compete at the NHL level. What we don't want is for that fact to lead to a team full of minor leaguers being used in the GHL. I completely understand the issue and I agree that these goalies shouldn't be able to start on a regular basis for us, but that isn't determined by their card values, that is stamina! The hole in that logic is that in the case of Hamilton, Georgiev has been able to platoon with an actual starter, playing slightly more games with better results. What this indicates to me is that going forward (ie next season) we need to consider recalibrating goalie stamina for any goalie with less than 25 NHL games. No goalie should have 70% the stamina of, and better numbers than a bonafide starter. If we are claiming its an issue of technique or athleticism, that's a tough argument to make, but if that's the closest we can come to approximating real results, fair enough. But 70% "stamina" if that's the measure of how well a goalie can produce consistently, should be nerfed. I suggest that fewer games than 25 should be subject to a 5 STAM. And yes, that would include Sparks.
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Post by Owen-Moncton on Dec 2, 2018 13:55:14 GMT -5
^^ he's better for THIS season but maybe the answer to use ALL of the goalies stats from junior, WC, WJC, AHL, OHL ect ect and get an average ? Not if we arent averaging every goalie's entire career numbers.
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Post by Scott-New York on Dec 2, 2018 15:35:48 GMT -5
I'm not sure what the game's played mark is for nerfing goalies. I know for skaters, it's the 41 game mark and if they don't play any NHL games, the stamina is called at 4. Skater's are also given the better of their AHL or NHL card. For goalies I'm sure the games played mark for being is considerably less. I think 25 is too high, some NHL back-ups don't even reach that mark. I agree that nerfing stats and stamina for goalies should be looked at if we are not doing so already. It makes sense if we do it for skaters.
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