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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Dec 3, 2018 21:18:46 GMT -5
First, I moved this thread to a more appropriate area.
Tech/Athl points are determined by hard cold numbers. These numbers are ten nerfed downwards if the player didn't play enough NHL games to warrant the ratings calculated (prior to nerf)
Stamina is based on total games played in the NHL or AHL.
That being said, 10 games played in the NHL in one season is not a small sample size. The normal starting goalie plays 60-65 games. So taking the mean of that (62.5) he played 16% of games a normal starting goalie in the NHL plays. This is how we arrive at his scores. Did you ever take a poll when those annoying bastards call you on the phone? No, me neither as I hand up on them as well but they will find 1000 suckers willing to talk to them on the phone and extrapolate that figure based on the number of people in a county (100,000 people let's say) to determine that x% of the county feels a certain way or will be voting for a certain candidate. Now the caveat is they will say the poll has a sampling error range of +/- 2 or 3%.
The county example above is a 10% sampling rate and AG gave us the aforementioned 16% sampling. Which do you think is more accurate? This isn't me making up numbers this is mathematical science. Please do some research if you don't believe me.
Lastly we add the AHL GP to see how many games he played in total to arrive at his stamina. That is how I can determine that he can play that many games in the GHL.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Dec 3, 2018 21:50:54 GMT -5
Huh...sooo...wait, what?
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Post by Owen-Moncton on Dec 4, 2018 3:52:53 GMT -5
This is starting to remind me of debates I have participated in with hard core hockey analytics aficionados wherein specific data sets are used to support a position that is counterintuitive to what eyes/common sense etc. might suggest. That an average minor leaguer may make his way to the show out of nothing but organizational need does not automatically suggest he's ready. Years ago when the Leafs had zero depth at all, one Jiri Tlusty, a sniper at the junior level who was drafted 11th overall, found himself summoned to the show. He scored two goals in his first game. One bounced in off his ass. Nevertheless, he was anointed the savior Toronto needed in short order. His career headed south in no time. In 2008, he was utterly useless and found himself traded to Carolina I believe for Philipe Paradis. My point here is that a promotion to the show does not always indicate greatness. I think what we are seeing here is a guy who was promoted based on opportunity vs readiness. And even if he is ready to back up, if a marginal asset can actually platoon with legit starters and have significantly better numbers than the AHL goalie of the year, I respectfully and humbly suggest that we are doing it wrong.
Once a stats guy argued that Mikail Grabovski was the best option to center Kessel. Because numbers. Problem was, they were both puck carriers who use their speed to gain the attacking zone. Grabo liked to try to dangle three guys and take it to the net. Kessel liked to rip it mid stride before the goalie can get set while he used his wheels to back defenders off. In short they were the furthest thing from compatible as demonstrated by 3 different head coaches. Data is awesome when supporting/testing a premise that observation suggests but it can't always drive a line of thought, especially when plain reason suggests otherwise.
Not trying to start a war of words with anyone, just pointing out the obvious: if NHL experience drives metrics like stamina, then the bar needs to be higher than 10 games before a guy has 70% the stamina of a starter. Because TECH/ATH scores that are driven by minor league results wont stand up against the highest levels of competition. And clearly, a 7 STAM allows you to platoon a raw rookie.
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Post by Scott-New York on Dec 4, 2018 7:08:16 GMT -5
I still don't understand why a goalie who gets an NHL card gets to use his AHL stamina, but we don't do this for skaters. Georgiev, despite Owen's argument, is an NHL back-up. The issue I see is that he played 10 games with a pretty high save % and probably deserves the card he got (63-65), or maybe even a better one if his card was nerfed very slightly, if at all, since it's on par with Freddie Andersson (63-71) and Devan Dubnyk (65-71) who have identical save % from last year but better GAA. I'm fully on board with the card creation as far as ATH/TECH points. However, Georgiev's card was created using his NHL stats based on his 10 games played and therefore should have the stamina to reflect 10 games played, not 47 games played. I believe that's the argument and a very good one, in this case.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Dec 4, 2018 8:06:43 GMT -5
Owen and Scott, you make me tear eyed! I applaud you both.
Glenn, you tear me up as well! I’d love to hear the words of some of our other respected members on this specific subject.
Note: I agree with the derivation of ATH/TECH score. However, it’s the STAM score that is creating serious delusion for me.
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Post by Jedediah-Hartford on Dec 4, 2018 8:43:10 GMT -5
This is starting to remind me of debates I have participated in with hard core hockey analytics aficionados wherein specific data sets are used to support a position that is counterintuitive to what eyes/common sense etc. might suggest. That an average minor leaguer may make his way to the show out of nothing but organizational need does not automatically suggest he's ready. Years ago when the Leafs had zero depth at all, one Jiri Tlusty, a sniper at the junior level who was drafted 11th overall, found himself summoned to the show. He scored two goals in his first game. One bounced in off his ass. Nevertheless, he was anointed the savior Toronto needed in short order. His career headed south in no time. In 2008, he was utterly useless and found himself traded to Carolina I believe for Philipe Paradis. My point here is that a promotion to the show does not always indicate greatness. I think what we are seeing here is a guy who was promoted based on opportunity vs readiness. And even if he is ready to back up, if a marginal asset can actually platoon with legit starters and have significantly better numbers than the AHL goalie of the year, I respectfully and humbly suggest that we are doing it wrong. Once a stats guy argued that Mikail Grabovski was the best option to center Kessel. Because numbers. Problem was, they were both puck carriers who use their speed to gain the attacking zone. Grabo liked to try to dangle three guys and take it to the net. Kessel liked to rip it mid stride before the goalie can get set while he used his wheels to back defenders off. In short they were the furthest thing from compatible as demonstrated by 3 different head coaches. Data is awesome when supporting/testing a premise that observation suggests but it can't always drive a line of thought, especially when plain reason suggests otherwise. Not trying to start a war of words with anyone, just pointing out the obvious: if NHL experience drives metrics like stamina, then the bar needs to be higher than 10 games before a guy has 70% the stamina of a starter. Because TECH/ATH scores that are driven by minor league results wont stand up against the highest levels of competition. And clearly, a 7 STAM allows you to platoon a raw rookie. Didn't Glenn clarify that both NHL and AHL games played in a season it what drives stamina? Following this thread makes me curious what Ken Dryden's GHL card would be like following the 1970-71 season...
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Post by Scott-New York on Dec 4, 2018 10:56:42 GMT -5
Yes, he did, but my point is that this is not the case with skaters so why should we use that logic for goalies?
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Dec 4, 2018 10:57:20 GMT -5
Dryden would have an average/below average card with a decent stamina. Look at Reto Berra, Ullmark, Jack Campbell this year. Cards get nerfed based on games played. Closer you are to minimum # of NHL games for card with no nerf the less it will be. If you play 1 game in NHL sample size too small very large reduction to cards. As you get closer to 15-20 games whatever it is that no nerf occurs the penalty is lower.
Personally I don't care either way Dubnyk is my starter but I think I would rather avoid guys like Georgiev having a top 20 card like the 65-71 his comparables have and having a 2 or 3 stamina. I feel like that would be more valuable than his current situation of an average to bad card that I would hope to never need in the playoffs. If we get guys like Ullmark having 90-90 cards with a 1 or 2 stamina I think we have made this situation worse.
Also this is explained in other threads if you guys would do a quick search.
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Dec 4, 2018 11:19:13 GMT -5
Yes, he did, but my point is that this is not the case with skaters so why should we use that logic for goalies? Also stamina with goalies and skaters are two different things. Skaters = Time they can play a game Goalies = Games they can play in Skaters are allowed to play in 82 games barring injury and their stamina (time played per game) is a concrete number you can use. For goalies it isn't so simple when they split time. You want to use games played in NHL as their only stamina, What if Georgiev was only in the NHL for 10 games and played all of them? If only taking NHL stats and ignoring everything else except AHL games for fortitude like Skater cards he should have a 10 stamina (played 100% of his NHL games). If a skater called up played 30 mins a game in his call up his stamina would be a 10 regardless if he got only 10 min a game at AHL level. You see how its a bit different between skaters and goalies.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Dec 4, 2018 11:22:19 GMT -5
Yes, he did, but my point is that this is not the case with skaters so why should we use that logic for goalies? Also stamina with goalies and skaters are two different things. Skaters = Time they can play a game Goalies = Games they can play inSkaters are allowed to play in 82 games barring injury and their stamina (time played per game) is a concrete number you can use. For goalies it isn't so simple when they split time. You want to use games played in NHL as their only stamina, What if Georgiev was only in the NHL for 10 games and played all of them? If only taking NHL stats and ignoring everything else except AHL games for fortitude like Skater cards he should have a 10 stamina (played 100% of his NHL games). If a skater called up played 30 mins a game in his call up his stamina would be a 10 regardless if he got only 10 min a game at AHL level. You see how its a bit different between skaters and goalies. Games they can play in? ? Who cares if they CAN play in them....Should be games that they ACTUALLY play in. This is what we are saying....We understand how the cards are developed. But, we do not agree with that process. Particularly, that Goaltenders get credited ( with a Stamina boost ) for games that they "could potentially play in" which thereby gives them GHL "Pro Roster" cards, whereas the Position players Do Not get that same benefit. The position players get a card which is generally a 4th or seldom 3rd line worthy. Making them less of an "impact type player." Yet, the goalies get cards which makes them an either a better starter than most NHL goalies, and at the very least a top backup. Hence, becoming an impact player. Even still, most of these goalies only have stats for: 1) splitting a season with another AHL goalie. 2) getting a taste of NHL experience and/or 3) not playing against NHL caliber players...Yet, they get a GHL card which does not distinguish between AHL and NHL caliber opponents, ONLY accounting for games dressed and/or played.
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Dec 4, 2018 11:28:18 GMT -5
Also stamina with goalies and skaters are two different things. Skaters = Time they can play a game Goalies = Games they can play inSkaters are allowed to play in 82 games barring injury and their stamina (time played per game) is a concrete number you can use. For goalies it isn't so simple when they split time. You want to use games played in NHL as their only stamina, What if Georgiev was only in the NHL for 10 games and played all of them? If only taking NHL stats and ignoring everything else except AHL games for fortitude like Skater cards he should have a 10 stamina (played 100% of his NHL games). If a skater called up played 30 mins a game in his call up his stamina would be a 10 regardless if he got only 10 min a game at AHL level. You see how its a bit different between skaters and goalies. Games they can play in? ? Who cares if they CAN play in them....Should be games that they ACTUALLY play in. Yea I ignored that suggestion of only playing the number of games they actually played in. Just doesn't make sense for the league my 5 goalies have already played 62 NHL games which means if i don't trade them somehow the rest of the league will be unable to play a goalie for 37 games and counting.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Dec 4, 2018 11:40:13 GMT -5
EXACTLY Dane...But if you have a commodity which is Needed yet not a deep supply of, what then happens? Economics. You get paid, overpaid!
So, theoretically, a GM that does not prepare his team by securing a "Real Starter", will have to pay the price of acquiring one. Or, his team will find itself falling below the mason dixon line.
Are you saying, that because "All" of the legit goalies are already owned, that we should be able to "create" goalies to supplant the need? Because, that is what we are doing by making AHL goalies starters in the GHL. For heavens sake, I have Harri Sateri as my starter!!!! LOL, and, he isn't that bad compared to every other starter and backup in this league ( and there in lies a problem )!!! But, ask ANY hockey fan if they know who Harri Sateri is? Let alone, if they think he is a capable NHL starter!
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Dec 4, 2018 11:49:14 GMT -5
Dane, in your Geogiev played in 10 NHL Games example...He played in 10 of 82 games! That's going to lessen his ability to play a full season in the GHL. Lower his Stamina, and make his card a realistic commodity for the following season. This is what we are seeking.
It isn't nerfing his card, not nerfing his real stats. However, by "making" his stats based on a "probability" of playing in games, and not the fact of actually playing them....that is wrong.
This is the only position that gets a reward for not playing actual games. Every other position gets diminished for not playing games, not only with a hit to Stamina, but also Fortitude.
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Post by Owen-Moncton on Dec 4, 2018 12:26:26 GMT -5
Dryden would have an average/below average card with a decent stamina. Look at Reto Berra, Ullmark, Jack Campbell this year. Cards get nerfed based on games played. Closer you are to minimum # of NHL games for card with no nerf the less it will be. If you play 1 game in NHL sample size too small very large reduction to cards. As you get closer to 15-20 games whatever it is that no nerf occurs the penalty is lower. Personally I don't care either way Dubnyk is my starter but I think I would rather avoid guys like Georgiev having a top 20 card like the 65-71 his comparables have and having a 2 or 3 stamina. I feel like that would be more valuable than his current situation of an average to bad card that I would hope to never need in the playoffs. If we get guys like Ullmark having 90-90 cards with a 1 or 2 stamina I think we have made this situation worse. Also this is explained in other threads if you guys would do a quick search. Personally, I think a raw talent who shows he can be competitive at the NHL (or GHL) level for one game before his play drops off is more logical than being able to platoon him with a starter. A mid to high 60'6 card with 7 STAM seems quite generous for a backup who generally plays one game to every three or four that a starter plays. Youv'e been able to platoon him with your starter quite effectively. That's counter-intuitive to what the card values were intended to permit. Clearly, 7 STAM is too generous for any goalie with 10 NHL games under his belt.
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Dec 4, 2018 12:27:29 GMT -5
Just going by your logic Neal Pionk played in 28 out of 82 games! That should lessen his ability to play a full season in the GHL. Oh wait it doesn't? That's strange.
"This is the only position that gets a reward for not playing actual games". I would argue that this is the only position that gets nerfed for not playing in actual games. We are nerfing goalies (and they should be) because we are assuming they could not play at the same rate they did for their call-up if they played their total number of games that year (47 for AG). In Pionks case or any skaters we let that slide and give him a card assuming he could keep his 28 game pace up over the entire 82 games.
Discussed in the other thread but the current solution seems to work and has been there since 2015. Take AHL GP into account for stamina the GHL card takes a hit. Use only NHL games played for card stays how it was and stamina reduced.
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