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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Aug 4, 2022 14:45:43 GMT -5
I have put a few queries together to identify who has had the most success drafting to date. Now this is pretty simple but for each player drafted I grabbed the best card value they had in one year and used that to determine who made the best pick at a particular point in the draft. The first table shows the number of best picks by team. The second table shows the best pick by overall pick and the team that drafted them. First surprise for me was how far Cincinnati was down on table 1 given the success they have had over the years. Cleveland | 12 | Michigan | 9 | New York | 9 | Suffolk | 9 | Boston | 8 | Alaska | 7 | Johnstown | 7 | Quebec | 7 | Seattle | 7 | New Jersey | 7 | Philadelphia | 6 | Baltimore | 6 | Hamilton | 5 | St Paul | 5 | Milwaukee | 5 | Toronto | 5 | Washington | 4 | Syracuse | 4 | Montreal | 4 | Pittsburgh | 4 | Hershey | 4 | Chicago | 4 | Halifax | 4 | Adirondack | 3 | Colorado | 3 | Cornwall | 3 | Edmonton | 3 | Moncton | 3 | Cincinnati | 2 | Hartford | 2 | Calgary | 1 |
OverAllPick | Player | Pos | teamcity | MaxPts | 1 | Makar, Cale | D | Toronto | 177 | 2 | Shesterkin, Igor | G | Seattle | 175 | 3 | Pietrangelo, Alex | D | Pittsburgh | 163 | 4 | Provorov, Ivan | D | Halifax | 146 | 5 | Hamilton, Dougie | D | Cleveland | 176 | 6 | Barkov, Aleksander | C | Seattle | 164 | 7 | Murray, Ryan | D | Philadelphia | 156 | 8 | Rantanen, Mikko | W/C | Colorado | 154 | 9 | Slavin, Jaccob | D | Cleveland | 167 | 10 | Subban, PK | D | Toronto | 160 | 11 | Johansen, Ryan | C/W | Seattle | 148 | 12 | Schwartz, Jaden | LW/RW | Philadelphia | 160 | 13 | McAvoy, Charlie | D | Hamilton | 163 | 14 | Stepan, Derek | RW\C | Toronto | 160 | 15 | Turris, Kyle | W/C | Alaska | 156 | 16 | Ellis, Ryan | D | Montreal | 178 | 17 | Fowler, Cam | D | St Paul | 150 | 18 | Vatanen, Sami | D | Pittsburgh | 161 | 19 | Shattenkirk, Kevin | D | Washington | 164 | 20 | Fabbro, Dante | D | Philadelphia | 136 | 21 | Campbell, Jack | G | Cincinnati | 147 | 22 | Hamonic, Travis | D | Johnstown | 152 | 23 | Morrissey, Joshua | D | Cleveland | 157 | 24 | Miller, JT | W/C | Chicago | 152 | 25 | DeKeyser, Danny | D | New Jersey | 148 | 26 | Carlo, Brandon | D | Edmonton | 149 | 27 | Forsberg, Filip | RW/LW | Syracuse | 150 | 28 | Raanta, Antti | G | Boston | 163 | 29 | Reimer, James | G | Adirondack | 149 | 30 | Gibson, John | G | Michigan | 157 | 31 | Andersen, Frederik | G | Suffolk | 155 | 32 | Skjei, Brady | D | Alaska | 151 | 33 | Parayko, Colton | D | Alaska | 156 | 34 | Georgiev, Alexandar | G | Hamilton | 128 | 34 | Luukkonen, Ukko-Pekka | G | New York | 128 | 35 | McDonagh, Ryan | D | Hartford | 160 | 36 | Pionk, Neal | D | Cornwall | 146 | 37 | McNabb, Brayden | D | New York | 154 | 38 | DeAngelo, Tony | D | Hershey | 156 | 39 | Schlemko, David | D | Moncton | 133 | 40 | Lindholm, Hampus | D | Suffolk | 150 | 41 | Ceci, Cody | D | Suffolk | 145 | 42 | Forsling, Gustav | D | Halifax | 159 | 43 | Gostisbehere, Shayne | D | Philadelphia | 145 | 44 | Borowiecki, Mark | D | Pittsburgh | 140 | 45 | Miller, Colin | D | Milwaukee | 139 | 46 | deHaan, Calvin | D | Montreal | 150 | 47 | Nedeljkovic, Alex | G | Seattle | 148 | 48 | Ekholm, Mattias | D | Adirondack | 157 | 49 | Lindback, Anders | G | Washington | 132 | 50 | Mrazek, Petr | G | Hamilton | 154 | 51 | Smith, Brendan | D\LW | Suffolk | 135 | 52 | Cizikas, Casey | C/W | New Jersey | 147 | 53 | Ouellet, Xavier | D | Cincinnati | 139 | 54 | Jarry, Tristan | G | Michigan | 143 | 55 | Brown, Connor | RW | Suffolk | 137 | 56 | Arvidsson, Viktor | RW\LW | Michigan | 140 | 57 | Lindgren, Ryan | D | St Paul | 147 | 58 | Toews, Devon | D | Michigan | 176 | 59 | Smith, Reilly | RW\LW | Quebec | 150 | 60 | Copp, Andrew | W\C | Boston | 141 | 61 | Graves, Ryan | D | Alaska | 160 | 62 | Nilsson, Anders | G | Baltimore | 146 | 63 | Hintz, Roope | C\LW | Chicago | 148 | 64 | Sanford, Zach | W/C | Michigan | 120 | 65 | Gustavsson, Filip | G | New Jersey | 130 | 66 | Cernak, Erik | D | Michigan | 150 | 67 | Andersson, Rasmus | D | Halifax | 153 | 68 | Spurgeon, Jared | D | Milwaukee | 161 | 69 | Severson, Damon | D | Johnstown | 146 | 70 | Pelech, Adam | D | Montreal | 144 | 71 | Stone, Mark | RW | Cornwall | 159 | 72 | Yannick Weber | D | New Jersey | 127 | 73 | Petry, Jeff | D | Seattle | 147 | 74 | Martinez, Alec | D | Michigan | 160 | 75 | Grubauer, Philipp | G | Cornwall | 165 | 76 | Johnson, Tyler | W\C | Montreal | 163 | 77 | Lehner, Robin | G | St Paul | 166 | 78 | Gormley, Brandon | D | Cleveland | 115 | 79 | Dillon, Brenden | D | New York | 134 | 80 | Lauzon, Jeremy | D | Hartford | 141 | 81 | Lindblom, Oskar | LW | Michigan | 133 | 82 | Nemeth, Patrik | D | Quebec | 153 | 83 | Allen, Jake | G | New York | 162 | 84 | Brossoit, Laurent | G | Cleveland | 152 | 85 | Pickard, Calvin | G | Colorado | 158 | 86 | Karlsson, William | C\LW | Baltimore | 157 | 87 | Kukan, Dean | D | Philadelphia | 127 | 88 | Korpisalo, Joonas | G | Hershey | 140 | 89 | Weegar, MacKenzie | D | Moncton | 164 | 90 | Lindell, Esa | D | Boston | 149 | 91 | Edmundson, Joel | D | Cleveland | 142 | 92 | Martin, Spencer | G | St Paul | 120 | 93 | Kuemper, Darcy | G | Alaska | 160 | 94 | Trotman, Zach | D | Milwaukee | 123 | 95 | Marchenko, Alexey | D | Hamilton | 135 | 96 | Mangiapane, Andrew | RW/LW | Moncton | 147 | 97 | Condra, Erik | RW/LW | Hershey | 137 | 98 | Carlsson, Lucas | D | Johnstown | 135 | 99 | Lowry, Adam | C/LW | Cleveland | 148 | 100 | Hickey, Thomas | D | New York | 141 | 101 | Colborne, Joe | W/C | Toronto | 124 | 102 | McGinn, Brock | RW\LW | Edmonton | 125 | 103 | Cirelli, Anthony | W\C | Boston | 146 | 104 | Orlov, Dmitry | D | Suffolk | 143 | 105 | Grzelcyk, Matt | D | Adirondack | 136 | 106 | Knyzhov, Nikolai | D | New Jersey | 122 | 107 | Bunting, Michael | LW | Washington | 145 | 108 | Walman, Jake | D | Johnstown | 122 | 109 | Cole, Ian | D | Washington | 149 | 110 | Jensen, Nick | D | Quebec | 144 | 111 | Jokipakka, Jyrki | D | Quebec | 130 | 112 | Walker, Sean | D | Quebec | 126 | 113 | Friedman, Mark | D | Boston | 133 | 114 | Murray, Matt | G | Baltimore | 158 | 115 | Rosen, Calle | D | New York | 136 | 116 | Bishop, Ben | G | Chicago | 164 | 117 | Jones, Martin | G | Baltimore | 182 | 118 | Palmieri, Kyle | RW\LW | Quebec | 136 | 119 | Blais, Sammy | RW/LW | Cleveland | 107 | 120 | Pesce, Brett | D | Boston | 162 | 121 | Acciari, Noel | W\C | Alaska | 130 | 122 | Borgen, William | D | Suffolk | 139 | 123 | Marincin, Martin | D | Pittsburgh | 144 | 124 | Beck, Taylor | RW/LW | Cleveland | 116 | 125 | Gourde, Yanni | W/C | New York | 144 | 126 | Jaros, Christian | D | Suffolk | 110 | 127 | Kolyachonok, Vladislav | D | New York | 108 | 128 | Kruger, Marcus | C/W | Milwaukee | 136 | 129 | Elie, Remi | LW | Hershey | 113 | 130 | Kase, Ondrej | RW\LW | Seattle | 129 | 131 | Antipin, Victor | D | Calgary | 111 | 132 | Hackett, Matt | G | New Jersey | 114 | 133 | Scrivens, Ben | G | Seattle | 144 | 134 | Dzingel, Ryan | W\C | Syracuse | 114 | 135 | Sharangovich, Yegor | W/C | Syracuse | 125 | 136 | DaCosta, Stephane | C | Edmonton | 116 | 137 | Middleton, Jacob | D | Milwaukee | 130 | 138 | Paul Byron | W/C | Cleveland | 148 | 139 | Bournival, Michael | LW/RW | Colorado | 114 | 140 | Larsen, Philip | RW | Boston | 118 | 141 | Falk, Justin | D | Syracuse | 131 | 142 | Szwarz, Jordan | RW/C | Quebec | 96 | 143 | Bayreuther, Gavin | D | Halifax | 125 | 144 | Michalek, Steve | G | Baltimore | 90 | 145 | Fitzgerald, Casey | D | Philadelphia | 122 | 146 | Hinostroza, Vinnie | W/C | Cleveland | 122 | 147 | Graovac, Tyler | LW/C | Chicago | 98 | 148 | Schmidt, Nate | D | Boston | 153 | 149 | Bitetto, Anthony | D | St Paul | 124 | 150 | MacEwen, Zack | W/C | New Jersey | 100 | 151 | Zech, Cooper | D | Alaska | 78 | 152 | Roy, Matt | D | Johnstown | 144 | 153 | Quinney, Gage | F | Suffolk | 84 | 154 | Schueneman, Corey | D | Johnstown | 132 | 155 | Giroux, Damien | C | Toronto | 76 | 155 | St. Denis, Travis | RW | Michigan | 76 | 156 | Daccord, Joey | G | Cleveland | 96 | 157 | Silovs, Arturs | G | Johnstown | 68 | 158 | Barton, Seth | D | Baltimore | 64 | 159 | Maniscalco, Josh | D | New York | 34 | 160 | Moverare, Jacob | D | Hamilton | 112 | |
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Post by Brenden-Oregon on Aug 4, 2022 14:51:20 GMT -5
Oregon must suck at drafting or something. Only team not on here
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Post by Jedediah-Hartford on Aug 4, 2022 16:30:18 GMT -5
Next up, a formula for best value pick overall, maybe using a 3-4 year peak card value average?
You know, because we don't ask enough of you already?
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Aug 4, 2022 17:29:33 GMT -5
Next next up, a formula for average (of best year) card by round.
ie. Hamilton 1st round picks card average 130 Cleveland 1st round picks card average 145
I don't see how this could be an easy ask so really not expecting it.
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Aug 4, 2022 19:17:14 GMT -5
Great stuff. Need to come up with a WAR calculation vs draft pick value formula. Seems like the current chart values favor D/G’s over Forwards as well…interesting.
I wonder how much of the first chart has to do more with number of picks made vs scouting ability as well.
All rhetorical of course as it’s unlikely to impact anything even if someone did come up with these formulas outside of bragging rights. At least until I come up with a way to charge more in trades for guys I draft thanks to my great scouting…ya should definitely keep this hypothetical.
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Aug 4, 2022 19:34:51 GMT -5
Also needed ....number of picks.
12 years of the G = 60 picks?
Some teams have had over 80 picks
some teams have had under 50 picks
Very important to chart this and while we are at it - metrics for evaluating drafting talent need to start with number of 1st round picks - again, very lopsided for some teams.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Aug 4, 2022 19:55:13 GMT -5
Phil, you are correct the some teams having more picks, and therefore more kicks at the can, on finding talent but the round of the pick has no bearing whatsoever as each pick is measured against the other picks at the exact same point in the draft . IE all #1 overall are measured against one another, all #66 picks overall are measured against each other. This being the case, there is no inherent advantage baked into the analysis for rating a 1st or 5th round pick.
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Aug 4, 2022 20:02:40 GMT -5
ok....but chart the total number of picks at least. THAT much is important.
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Aug 4, 2022 20:06:45 GMT -5
Cleveland or whoever with 18 1st round picks
Aces or Cornwall with 6 1st rounders
I wanna know
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Aug 4, 2022 20:42:49 GMT -5
don't make me post pictures of obscure hockey trading cards...
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