Inferior Goalies

[Chris-Suffolk]

I wish my Inferior Goalies could perform like the inferior goalies do that beat my team...And the inferior teams do too!

It's as if they get a 10 Point Boost all around! Horseshit Sim!

[Jon-Seattle]

Something seems really off with the sim this year. I know it’s just me and ya’ll think I’m crazy but the goalie issue is weird. Allen is still top 5 in save % and GAA. You can’t tell me that’s right when I have a goalie that doubles nearly every stat on the card compared to Allen and is doing much worse (on what should be a better team). If this just is what it is and doesn’t get fixed this may be my last year because it’s honestly killing the game for me. And I just spent 6 years rebuilding (and getting my ass kicked year in and year out) so that should say something

[Scott-New York]

It's not just "it is what it is," and it's not the sim, either. The fact that you are frustrated shows a competitive spirit that quitting voids. Don't quit. Work at it. Use your hockey mind. Yes, I realize this post is slightly cryptic, but I'm not solving the issue for you.

[Dane-Hamilton]

I'd wait until we get some shot location data. I still think there is probably one or two locations that sv percent is just shit for every Goalie no matter the card.

If that's the case tweaking shooter advantage or lowering frequency of shots from those locations somehow may fix it.

But...it's a fine line I assume, goals and goals by location roughly track NHL so wouldn't want to make a tweak where it moves total scoring too far from where it is now

[Scott-New York]

I'm not sure you guys are looking at this in a hockey sense. A goaltender is capable of stealing a game or two here and there, but you can't depend on them to win games night in and night out, which sounds like the expectation here. Just for some perspective, in games that Sheshty has started this season, the team is being out shot 50% of the time, and Sheshty is still turning aside over 90% of shots he faces.

[Jon-Seattle]

Dec 30, 2022 6:01:32 GMT -5 Scott-New York said:

It's not just "it is what it is," and it's not the sim, either. The fact that you are frustrated shows a competitive spirit that quitting voids. Don't quit. Work at it. Use your hockey mind. Yes, I realize this post is slightly cryptic, but I'm not solving the issue for you.

I’ve done the research, it’s not adding up.

I’ve been told it’s because my teams stamina is too low, but I’ve shown before my worst performing players are playing several minutes less than what they had in real life so that doesn’t track, and my teams stamina seems to be on par if not better then a significant part of the rest of the league.

I’ve been told it’s because of my teams shooting % and shot rate but my point production seems ok, a little low but about average for the G. It seems like my first line is the only one scoring which is incredibly odd seeing as how, looking around at the rest of the league, I thought one of the strengths of my team was it’s depth.

I’ve been told it’s my teams defensive performance but while my top pairing doesn’t have great defensive numbers they have strong overall cards which should take that pressure off of them to perform like superheroes in their own end. Werenski was the guy I was worried about most but he’s a +12 right now so that doesn’t seem to be it. In fact the only +/- in the negative is Romanov. Which also seems odd. His card is only 44/80 so based on the card being one of the lowest overall for my defensemen maybe there’s something to it. On the other hand last year he averaged ~2 blocks (19th overall) and ~3 hits (19th) a game with 2:35 SHTOI (only 40th) so the fact he’s only an 80 defensively is a bit confusing.

So maybe my goalies are just being overworked, well no, up until this week I’ve been manually rotating them and have shown some of the stats previously regarding opp strength as well so that’s not it. Is my team just hanging the goalie out to dry? We’ll they kept Oregon (the team just below me in the bottom of our division) to 23 shots which is great, until you realize Shesterkin then let in 4 of them…so please do tell me what the fuck am I missing?

[Jon-Seattle]

Dec 30, 2022 12:56:39 GMT -5 Scott-New York said:

I'm not sure you guys are looking at this in a hockey sense. A goaltender is capable of stealing a game or two here and there, but you can't depend on them to win games night in and night out, which sounds like the expectation here. Just for some perspective, in games that Sheshty has started this season, the team is being out shot 50% of the time, and Sheshty is still turning aside over 90% of shots he faces.

Shesterkins NHL save % = .937
GHL save % = .904

NHL GAA = 2.07
GHL GAA = 3.19

Tell me again how my expectations are too high

[Chris-Suffolk]

I hear you Jon!!! And, I cannot put into words what you and others do, BUT...Don't quit!

Also, don't compare the GHL teams to NHL stat expectancy!!! That's a HUGE mistake. Half, or close to that, of the GHL teams are pieced together horribly! Yes, they get wins and losses, have players that lead some scoring categories. But, overall...their teams are nothing but charades.

Your team is coming together nicely for the long run.

I'm not picking on Owen...but frustration may be the reason why he BIDS so over the top on a guy like Trocheck, Hertl, Seguin, etc...Sure, these guys have a nice card for a Season. But taking up 90% of a teams Cap on 3 or 4 players cant be considered good enough to make a team competitive, AND it DOESN'T.

Same goes for a GM that keeps dumping 1st Rd Picks, or selling off prospects. It takes looking at the BIG picture and having a plan for the future as well as taking care of the present.

YOU are doing all of that! You're doing it right. It really is as simple as that. Your players on your team currently, are not over the top guys this season...as far as a unit goes. But, a tweak here and there, could put you over the top.

I know you don't want to hear shit from me...I'm just being honest. You're a smart guy, but we don't have anything to do with the sim. We have to leave out the psychological components of the game and realize that these are just random numbers which are deciding outcomes.

It frustrates the hell out of me because I'm a competitive mutha fucker and do not play anything with an expectation to lose. I play to win everything!!! I have had this same discussion for years in this league. Only difference is, I don't have the mathematical knowledge nor the language skills to make sense or for others to consider my points.

MANY of you guys ARE very good with your words and explaining! That's a definite skill!!! All I can say is, hang in here and keep pushing forward. You aren't going crazy with your assessments or your ideas. You're actually knowledgeable to see that your product is underachieving and it should be performing better. That's your competitiveness. Solving the issue is going to be what puts you over the edge or not. Simple tweak here or there. You might need to move someone who is good, in order to get that special piece. Good player for Good player. Don't become attached to GOOD NHL'ers and expect the same results here in the GHL! All you have to do is look back at whom the league leaders have been year after year to know that.

You're an integral part of the league Jon! Don't give up! Period!

[Chris-Suffolk]

Man, all I have to say is...Glennis better not let us ever know his street address...I mean EVERRR!!! Never Ever!

I'll smash that friggin server into a billion pieces! Sometimes I feel like my team is playing against New Jersey-esque teams in full rebuild night in and night out. But, my teams computer pulses are being driven by AOL Dial up service but all you all are using Fiber Optic High Speed Modems. It's dang Horse Ba-Doody! I shouldn't be losing to any of you!!! Everrrr!

I'm THAT good!

[Scott-New York]

Chris explained this very well above, and I couldn't agree more with his assessment. If you are expecting GHL stats to reflect NHL stats, you are definitely going to be disappointed. The stats can't possibly reflect each other if you think about it. The teams in the G do not match the teams in real life. therefore, how could the numbers match up? It's a simulation, not a mirror. Build your team using solid hockey knowledge just as you are, and don't let frustration ruin your experience. Of course, winning is more fun. We've all struggled with figuring out how to set lineups, etc. Accept the challenge and never give up. It's part of the fun. And if you look at it as a whole, it's very realistic. Just don't expect video game results. Expect simulation results with real life time frames. You won't build a championship team overnight.

[Jon-Seattle]

Dec 30, 2022 18:49:01 GMT -5 Scott-New York said:

Chris explained this very well above, and I couldn't agree more with his assessment. If you are expecting GHL stats to reflect NHL stats, you are definitely going to be disappointed. The stats can't possibly reflect each other if you think about it. The teams in the G do not match the teams in real life. therefore, how could the numbers match up? It's a simulation, not a mirror. Build your team using solid hockey knowledge just as you are, and don't let frustration ruin your experience. Of course, winning is more fun. We've all struggled with figuring out how to set lineups, etc. Accept the challenge and never give up. It's part of the fun. And if you look at it as a whole, it's very realistic. Just don't expect video game results. Expect simulation results with real life time frames. You won't build a championship team overnight.

6 years I've spent rebuilding this team. 6 years. I came into a team that had been picked clean and used as more of an offshore account than an actual team. I've spent years trying to figure out the type of players that fit in the GHL model, my first two years in this league were horrendous. But I understood it would take time. and slowly my team began to take shape. and the next few years the team did slowly get better. I even managed to make the playoffs a few times as the team finally started taking shape. My team wasnt outplaying their cards but just managed to be good enough. Finally I look at my roster this year and think I should be contending for a division title. My teams cards on offense are good if not great, my defense is at the very least average, and my goaltending should be world beating. Instead the team is complete trash. This isnt a random number generator sim, we have set stats that are pulled, yes somewhat randomly given the situation, but you cant convince me that if we are going off of NHL stats to fill in our player cards that they shouldnt perform at least similarly here in the GHL as they do in the NHL. I'm not expecting it to be exact, thats the whole point of the sim. But maybe you're right maybe Shesterkin had a better defense in the NHL, so lets look at the defensemen from the NYR real quick and what are sim seems to think about them.

Best defensive rating: 
Adam Fox: 79-84

hmmm thats weird. well what do the rest of the NYR defensemen look like?
Jacob Trouba: 59-81
K'andre Miller: 52-81
Lindgren: 48-81
Braun: 55-80
Nemeth: 39-62
Hajek: 38-60
Lundqvist: 54-56

Odd his NYR teammates seem not to be rated that highly. Please tell me if i missed one because this just helps cement my opinion that something is off. Not a single one above an 84 defensively. I get the GHL isn't a perfect comparison for players stats especially when taking the team as a whole but come on something isn't right here.

Now I understand there is going to be some statistical probabilities involved as a whole regarding how the team performs, I'm suggesting that Goalies specifically but also my team as a whole seem to be operating at an unbelievably negative statistical probability. For a team to perform good or bad over a game or string of a handful of games is understandable and on the whole given statistical probability this should be washed out when taken on a whole given a large enough sample size. we have nearly half a season to go off of at this point. I dont mind the occasional loss when I feel like I have the better team. I dont mind not making the playoffs, hell half the years I've spent in this league I havent made the playoffs and even when I have theres been 0 chance that I make a long run. I've been ok with that. Now that I feel like I've put together the best team I have ever had though...the statistical probability that this team is where it should be at seems incredibly low to me and unbelievable. 

my final piece of evidence regarding something is off with the goalies comes down to three words: Jake Fucking Allen

[Scott-New York]

I keep seeing that you are only referencing offensive ratings for offensive players and defensive ratings for defensive cards. Adam Fox grades out WELl above an 84 defensive rating. Are you taking into account any other ratings on the cards? The sim is much deeper than that simplistic approach. I'm trying here, bud, but I'm not going to come right out and give an analytics class for the whole league.

[Jon-Seattle]

Would you like me to compare OFF/DEF/NEU player for player? Offense and defense? Or each individual sub stat which according to Glenn is assigned based on the overall for that category (not based on anything except the overall OFF/DEF score). I understand shot and shot% is calculated separately, and if we’re talking strictly my team I understand this seems to be a bit low across the board on my team but doesn’t seem to be aggregioussly bad especially when my teams overall offense is is considerably high. But we’re talking Goalies specifically here and I’m using mine as an example and people keep pointing out that the goalies NHL defense may be better than the one I have here in the GHL. I disagree and would argue the opposite, which is why I’m specifically focusing on defensemen and defensive stats specifically. In short you want me to compare my entire team against the rest of the league it’s in another thread from earlier this year. You think there’s specific stats/substats I’m ignoring? Then point it out. I’m sitting here doing the work, showing you why I think the way I do and y’all just keep saying there’s more to it or I’m missing something but I’ve done checks both in private and here in the forums. It’s not adding up.

As far as why one player does better than another I’ll again pull out my whipping boy Jake Allen. Please forgive me for simplifying this a bit but each shot pulls a stat from the shooter and the goalie. Allen’s best stat is a six, with the rest between 3-5. Shesterkins stats are all 7 or better. So if the sim is using just the stats we see on the cards every player with a shot score that’s between 4-6 has a decent chance of going in against Allen and should be absolutely put to rest by Shesterkin. Anything 6-7 should absolutely be put in against Allen but not Shesterkin. While 8s finally have a chance to beat Shesterkin and 9-10s are near perfect shots that probably go in against anyone. This should only be after getting through the defense and not considering blocked shots, etc right? So why the hell is Jake Allen putting up all star numbers? Tell me, show me how this makes sense.

[Jon-Seattle]

I finally found where Glenn discusses how goals are calculated. So if it’s on net the basics come down not to a random stat but shot on the part of the shooter. Only 32 players have a score above 70, which would modify an increase in chance the goal goes in based on where the shot was taken as determined by some table we we are not privy to.

Shot rates are based on off v def scores and if I’m reading this correctly a goalie with a bad defense would see an increased workload and possibly increased GAA but shouldn’t necessarily see a decrease in save % as that is calculated separately based on Glenn’s table and the shooter v goalie calculation above.

In my case above shesterkin should have an increased chance at stopping nearly every shooter in this league except for some of the shots from the top 32 or so shooters who could match or if one of the better shooters that comes up with an 8 actually beat (and therefor increase chance of scoring) shesterkin.

On the other hand nearly every half decent shooter in the league should be able to increase their chance of scoring against Jake Allen. Yet somehow given this information Jake Allen is still stopping more shots actually put on net.

For the record NJ’s defensemen defensive rating an are all 79 or lower. And man for man my D are better. So shesterkin should also be seeing less shots. So you can’t tell me it’s some random defensive stat causing the stats to get thrown off. If anything it’s even worse. I’m not gunna do a man for man comparison but my forwards defensive ratings are just as good if not significantly better on the whole. This means shesterkin should be seeing less shots, and less of the shots should be coming from a dangerous area.

You wanna talk about offense? Mine is hands down better. So my team should be holding onto the puck. I would guess someone’s gunna say my team just isn’t taking enough shots to win. We’re not talking about winning but even if I did a team comparison of shot and shot % the only difference that should make is likelihood that my team scores and has no bearing on goalie stats. I still feel like my team would perform alright. My teams stamina is good as I’ve mentioned before and shouldn’t be the issue.

What other stats do we have? Blocked shots, should only affect number of shots actually get out on goal. Shouldn’t effect save %.

In short my defense is better and so shesterkin should be seeing shots from farther out and less of them in total. With the better stats from the card shesterkin should have a significantly increased chance at stopping nearly every shot, not sure if it’s a flat rate or scales but if it scales shesterkin should have a ridiculously higher chance at stopping every shot. If it’s flat then Allen should have a decreased chance against a majority of the shots he sees anyway.

So tell me what I’m missing. What have I got so wrong that the best team I’ve ever put together is gunna sit at the bottom of my division. Don’t tell me I haven’t done my homework when I’m the only one here showing my work.

[Chris-Suffolk]

Actually, I wish my goalies that ARE BETTER than my opponents, could play BETTER THAN my opponents when I play against them. Especially when I outshoot them by 20 Shots.

I mean, IF my opponents goalie can be outstanding in a game, why isn't my goalie playing outstanding? Is my goalie saying to himself WOW that goalie across the rink is playing outstanding...I should allow these powder shots passed me! Or, is he saying, WOW, we got us a game here, I better keep my opponents off the sheet because that other goalie is robbing my teammates.

It appears, that one goalie gets a boost, AND ONLY ONE. Not BOTH. And, it doesn't matter if I'm the home team or the Visiting. I find it frustrating. Over the years I have voiced it, and just had suck it up and be told to sit in the corner. NOBODY puts Baby in the corner! NOBODY.

BUTTTT, EITHER WAY....HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!! Even the shitty goalies that aren't shitty against Suffolk! LOL!