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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Jan 25, 2023 20:27:27 GMT -5
I'm confused! Are we comparing ourselves to the NHL or Not? The main reason I at least wanted to see the stats was to see if one zone was out of whack compared to NHL or if one area was giving a much higher advantage to the shooter. I thought zone 14 would be the problem but its seeing less shots than NHL in that area and save percentage looks reasonable. goals are still much higher than NHL. I know its a sim but prior years had the scoring close to NHL levels then a big spike up. I don't think it was all due to weaker competition but who knows.
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jan 25, 2023 22:33:46 GMT -5
...or, he sucks from zone 14 that’s definitely true. And I want to know why. Why would the goalie with the best card be the worst in z14?
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jan 25, 2023 22:42:21 GMT -5
I'm confused! Are we comparing ourselves to the NHL or Not? The main reason I at least wanted to see the stats was to see if one zone was out of whack compared to NHL or if one area was giving a much higher advantage to the shooter. I thought zone 14 would be the problem but its seeing less shots than NHL in that area and save percentage looks reasonable. goals are still much higher than NHL. I know its a sim but prior years had the scoring close to NHL levels then a big spike up. I don't think it was all due to weaker competition but who knows. I think we’re about 15 shots per game higher than the NHL we have around 80 shots per game with NHL being somewhere around 60-70 I believe.
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Post by Brenden-Oregon on Jan 26, 2023 10:38:58 GMT -5
...or, he sucks from zone 14 that’s definitely true. And I want to know why. Why would the goalie with the best card be the worst in z14? Your last 11 games: Shesterkin (7 starts): .957 sv%, 1.43 GAA, 10 total goals against, 8 in z14 Nedeljkovic (4 starts): .916 sv%, 2.75, 11 total goals against, 4 in z14 Wouldn't you rather have a goalie stopping basically every shot in his last 7 starts outside of z14 than a goalie who is letting the puck in from any zone like Nedeljkovic? Take the zones away, you'd sign up all day for a .957 sv% and 1.43 GAA. It's all about how you look at it. Focus on the totality of the goaltending and not nitpick one zone. Who cares what zone they are coming from? I'd be more annoyed if he was giving up goals from wherever instead of net front. Goals will happen. Be happy with that GAA and sv% in this sim.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 26, 2023 10:44:43 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure it doesn't matter if it's Shesterkin, Nedjelkovic, Demko in net. To make comparison's to those "real life NHL" players is unrealistic. They play in the real world. We're playing in a Fantasy Simulation! It's been said so often.
I guess the best way to say it is, don't expect any similarity to those NHL guys to transfer into the GHL. That's just being stupid!
Am I right?
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 26, 2023 10:46:29 GMT -5
BUTTTTTTT, if you were to compare those NHL guys stats to GHL stats...you might be on to something...But, again, you're not, because It's a SIM! Ya can't win Rocky!
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 26, 2023 20:38:09 GMT -5
Another Close Win for Suffolk....Outshot Wash 74-34 (Plus 40 Shots)...Whew! 6-4...No Goals From Zone 14!!!! It's a logical expectation to feel it would be close, No?
Wish I could keep pucks out of the net like NY does. Lots of Shut outs over there!
Maybe one day we'll be able to know where the shots come from for the Entire Game. Like Dane had mentioned, there's a possibility that Suffolk is launching softballs from the neutral zone because my players shoot so much. It's an interesting concept that I'd like to know the answer to.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 26, 2023 22:13:22 GMT -5
Maybe, the problem might be the "Neutral Zone." I recall watching the playoff games on Twitch and I felt like the puck moved awfully quickly from Offensive Zone to Offensive Zone without much delay. For example, a player on Suffolk would come down the Left Wing side and let a shot go from either Zones 4 or 7 and instantly that shot would be blocked and an opposing teams player would instantly have an offensive opportunity the other direction and a shot against me.
I'm aware that shots are blocked and play sometimes quickly moves the opposite direction. But, it seemed as though the opponent had to be hanging at my blue line expecting a turnover to be able to get a shot off that quickly.
Just a thought, maybe the neutral zone is an issue? Offense is occurring quicker than should be happening because of that? Just spitballing...I don't know the answer...just an observation.
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jan 27, 2023 1:01:50 GMT -5
I like how it’s gone from:
1. Huh something seems off here to
2. You’re just mad that you goalie sucks and you’re losing
3. You don’t know how statistics work to
4. I’m sure it’s all just a fluke to
5. Well it only seems to be happening to you and we’ve finally moved onto the
6. Everything else seems to be fine and you’re winning now so who cares that there seems to be a possible issue.
For the record today was the first game this calendar year that Shesterkin didn’t give up a goal in z14 (2 goals against). It took 7 games, and the last was a one goal game (12/31 vs STP)
What’s the point of trying to improve the sim if you’re gunna argue against a legitimate issue by pointing out that the rest of it works great? Like biting into an apple and claiming it’s great except for the 🪱
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jan 27, 2023 9:10:47 GMT -5
There's a lot in the thread to unpack but I will throw some bullet items to hit the majority of these (at least the ones I remember).
Overall, and to Chris's point, the sim is built to mirror the NHL. The caveat is that because GHL teams have differing support personnel (wingers have differing line mates, goalies have differing d-men in front of them etc.) you can't expect one players performance to be the same because he is not being viewed in a vacuum.
I think a few guys have touched on it but there still is a volume of shots issue that is causing scoring to be higher than expected. I will do some analysis on the 21-22 NHL stats (as these were used as a basis for our cards) to determine how much higher we are. Jon said perhaps 10-15 higher and I am guessing that is most likely true but the analysis will tell us exactly.
I will also review overall save percentage (for the last month or so after the table adjustments were made) to see how save percentage compares to 21-22 NHL stats. I am thinking this will be closer than the total shots analysis above. The data will tell the tale.
As a reminder, goalies are not rated by zone. Brenden brought up a good point about looking at performance as a whole and not focusing on one area. Even if a guy gave up all of his goals from one zone, the proper way to measure his performance is to see what his save percentage was from that zone and a team metric of how many shots were allowed from that zone.
Teams are always trying to advance the puck into the most dangerous spot in their offensive zone (in front of the net). The better the pass made (skater with puck derived offensive stat [based on skill and wind]) compared to the chosen defending skaters derived defensive stat [based on skill and wind] will move the puck to more dangerous areas of the ice.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jan 27, 2023 13:13:55 GMT -5
21-22 NHL season 63 shots per game on average .907 save percentage
22-23 GHL Season (216 gp since tables updated) 81 shots per game on average (28.6% higher than NHL last year) .907 save percentage (same as NHL stats from last year)
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Jan 27, 2023 14:35:30 GMT -5
GHL penalties are higher than NHL penalties too, while we are it.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jan 27, 2023 14:50:22 GMT -5
GHL penalties are higher than NHL penalties too, while we are it. Gut feeling or do you have some metrics to back this claim?
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Jan 27, 2023 15:11:18 GMT -5
GHL penalties are higher than NHL penalties too, while we are it. Gut feeling or do you have some metrics to back this claim? If you know hockey, you will know that the GHL penalty rate is higher. All the Hockey Gurus were correct on the higher shots per game leading to higher scoring. Same with penalties. I'm busy researching my 935.00 PPL electric bill so I can't do too much GHL research at the moment.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jan 27, 2023 15:14:51 GMT -5
Gut feeling or do you have some metrics to back this claim? If you know hockey, you will know that the GHL penalty rate is higher. All the Hockey Gurus were correct on the higher shots per game leading to higher scoring. Same with penalties. I'm busy researching my 935.00 PPL electric bill so I can't do too much GHL research at the moment. Gotcha. Gut feeling. And ouchees on the PP&L bill.
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