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Post by Brenden-Oregon on Jan 27, 2023 15:28:44 GMT -5
For the penalty crowd:
Total PP opportunities from start of season til now GHL: 5377
Total PP goals from start of season til now GHL: 1306
Total PP opportunities from start of season til now NHL: 4925
Total PP goals from start of season til now NHL: 1080
About 9.1% higher in PP opportunities compared to NHL. Also roughly a 2.3% higher PP%.
This could be a reason (not the only reason though) for higher total shots on goal and actual goals as well.
This was just a quick pull and doesn't count for other penalties like fights, misconducts, and coincidental penalties.
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Jan 27, 2023 15:36:09 GMT -5
I knew it, of course
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Post by Phil-Cornwall on Jan 27, 2023 15:37:00 GMT -5
wow, so with This was just a quick pull and doesn't count for other penalties like fights, misconducts, and coincidental penalties,
The GHL penalty total is even higher still !!!
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jan 27, 2023 16:09:35 GMT -5
That's what happens when you let goons like Mike Reilly run amok in the league.
You have made your case Phil, Reilly suspension has been upped to 12 games.
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jan 27, 2023 16:29:41 GMT -5
You can’t accurately evaluate individual zone proficiency based on overall save % because they all utilize independent variables that are not associated with each other. Unless you’re telling me that each shot is dependent on the results of previous shots from different zones.
Either each shot is independent and should only be evaluated based on the goalie and zone (and thus my calculations should be actually checked as a legitimate concern) or each shot isn’t just dependent on zone and goalie but also results of previous shot regardless of zone in which case y’all have incorrectly explained what the hell is going on.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 27, 2023 16:41:34 GMT -5
21-22 NHL season 63 shots per game on average .907 save percentage 22-23 GHL Season (216 gp since tables updated)81 shots per game on average (28.6% higher than NHL last year) .907 save percentage (same as NHL stats from last year) Shit! Suffolk is averaging nearly 80 shots a game by ourselves! Are you sure these cal-ca-lay-shuns is done correctly?! Last 15 Games: ONLY 4 of my games had less than 80 Shots on Goal.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jan 27, 2023 17:35:29 GMT -5
You can’t accurately evaluate individual zone proficiency based on overall save % because they all utilize independent variables that are not associated with each other. Unless you’re telling me that each shot is dependent on the results of previous shots from different zones. Either each shot is independent and should only be evaluated based on the goalie and zone (and thus my calculations should be actually checked as a legitimate concern) or each shot isn’t just dependent on zone and goalie but also results of previous shot regardless of zone in which case y’all have incorrectly explained what the hell is going on. There is no correlation between previous, current, or future shots. Once a shot is taken, the goalie and the shooter are the primary drivers but as mentioned before, there can be other variables (such as screens and deflections) which can modify the shooters chance to score. The point I was making is that saying all 4 goals scored against a goalie over a half a dozen games came from one zone is not an indicator of a problem. I was stating that comparing a goalies save percentage against other goalies (or the mean) from zone 4 would be a better indicator of any issue. The fact that I posted the chance to score from the zone 14 table previously and explained how the column used is determined by comparing the shooter to the goalie was me checking to make sure that there was not a legitimate concern.
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jan 27, 2023 18:03:36 GMT -5
It’s been 40+ games!!!!!!!
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jan 28, 2023 7:52:42 GMT -5
Latest Shesterkin game: 3 goals against all from Z14 on 41 total shots. Since my last post he has started 5 games and allowed 7 goals. 6 out of those 7 goals were from zone 14. His overall save % has bounced up due to a SO but the Z14 numbers aren’t getting any better and with the dice rolling mechanic we use all statistics should regress towards the average over time as the number of rolls drastically increases. (Which is why Danes suggesting of Shesterkin just being bad at dice seems unfounded) ^ I was referring to this post
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jan 28, 2023 14:08:00 GMT -5
Latest Shesterkin game: 3 goals against all from Z14 on 41 total shots. Since my last post he has started 5 games and allowed 7 goals. 6 out of those 7 goals were from zone 14. His overall save % has bounced up due to a SO but the Z14 numbers aren’t getting any better and with the dice rolling mechanic we use all statistics should regress towards the average over time as the number of rolls drastically increases. (Which is why Danes suggesting of Shesterkin just being bad at dice seems unfounded) ^ I was referring to this post and I was pointing out that the small sample size, when added to the larger collection of data is making the z14 numbers even worse. The shots against Shesterkin should have what? An 82% chance shot of being stopped? No it should be higher but let’s use 82% anyway. If he faces 10 shots and stops 5/10 then that’s just luck of the dice. As you increase those numbers though they should eventually regress towards the predestined 82%. So if you run the shots through a hundred times you should get somewhere around 82 shot blocks, give or take a variable amount for statistical probability. Let’s say that variable amount is something high around +/- 10 goals. Shesterkin could theoretically have a .720 save % over 100 shots but if you continue to run the sim for another 1000 shots that number should regress to the .820 mark. Isn’t that correct? Are we seeing Shesterkins numbers in z14 regress towards the average, no, it’s actually getting worse. So please do whatever you need to in order to ID and fix the problem. But do not tell me I don’t know what I’m talking about. I really wish you’d find a way to pull up the exact calculation the sim is using on these individual shots because the data (over 40 games worth) shows that Shesterkins z14 numbers are not in line with what should be statistically possible if your formula and table numbers are being utilized properly.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jan 28, 2023 16:57:59 GMT -5
^ I was referring to this post and I was pointing out that the small sample size, when added to the larger collection of data is making the z14 numbers even worse. The shots against Shesterkin should have what? An 82% chance shot of being stopped? No it should be higher but let’s use 82% anyway. If he faces 10 shots and stops 5/10 then that’s just luck of the dice. As you increase those numbers though they should eventually regress towards the predestined 82%. So if you run the shots through a hundred times you should get somewhere around 82 shot blocks, give or take a variable amount for statistical probability. Let’s say that variable amount is something high around +/- 10 goals. Shesterkin could theoretically have a .720 save % over 100 shots but if you continue to run the sim for another 1000 shots that number should regress to the .820 mark. Isn’t that correct? Are we seeing Shesterkins numbers in z14 regress towards the average, no, it’s actually getting worse. So please do whatever you need to in order to ID and fix the problem. But do not tell me I don’t know what I’m talking about. I really wish you’d find a way to pull up the exact calculation the sim is using on these individual shots because the data (over 40 games worth) shows that Shesterkins z14 numbers are not in line with what should be statistically possible if your formula and table numbers are being utilized properly. How are you arriving at Shesterkin's save percentage for zone 14? Based on the latest numbers run yes the average save percentage for all goalies is 82% but what I don't understand is how you think he is under performing in this area. You need to know how many total shots he faced from there as well as how many goals he gave up. If you are deriving this from somewhere else, then your method is wrong. Regarding the exact calculation, the sim generates a debug file for the nights worth of games (this gets over written each night) and here is some more detail on the 2 goals he gave up from zone 14 last night: Breakdown for SOG - Jankowski OFFENSE ==> Jankowski==> SHOT [7] (5) >> Winded << DEFENSE ==> Shesterkin==> MENTAL [7] (7) >> Fresh << TOTAL MODIFIER => -2 CTS: 15 15 for: Jankowski Jankowski has a 15 % chance to score GOAL SCORED by Jankowski In Tally goal section - goal scorer: Jankowski Player: 9, GR.Puckholder: 2 Goal Details: Jankowski (Watson,Faulk) Breakdown for SOG - Dach OFFENSE ==> Dach==> SHOT [4] (3) >> Fresh << DEFENSE ==> Shesterkin==> GLOVE [8] (8) >> Fresh << TOTAL MODIFIER => -5 CTS: 10 10 for: Dach Dach has a 10 % chance to score GOAL SCORED by Dach In Tally goal section - goal scorer: Dach Player: 12, GR.Puckholder: 2 Goal Details: Dach (Jones,Dickinson)
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jan 28, 2023 20:25:05 GMT -5
I don’t have all of the numbers available for z14 which is why I was excited you had finally been able to incorporate a way to break that down in at least the database.
What I’m saying is based on how many shots he should be seeing from z14, based on the numbers we have so far (15% of shots coming from z14) Shesterkin should see ~5 shots a game from z14 and over 40 games that’s around 200 shots in total.
The save % of .820 is the mean for the GHL and takes into account goalies of all skill levels vs shooters of all skill levels. If we just use that as a basis for what Shesterkin could at worst be capable and of then I at least have somewhere to start from right?
What you’ve shown above is that his save% chance should be even higher. Let’s say it should be somewhere in between the 10-15% you show with those two players. Over these last 40 games he should have let in 20-30 from z14. But it’s been double that, at least. These are all very rough numbers as I don’t have all of the data you do but if you run the numbers what you’ll see is that I believe these numbers will line up with what we’re seeing. So the question is why? Is it just random statistical probability and chance that his save % is probably below .700 or is there an error in how it’s determining % chance?
Essentially right now at the end of the calculations the sim is rolling this D100 dice and saying Dach has to get a 90 or higher to beat Shesterkin. Ok he was able to pull it out, no problem. but my guess is Shesterkin has seen close to 200 rolls and instead of seeing that number hover around 90-85 his save percentage seems like it’s been closer to 75 if not lower. If you run the numbers for what we have so far I would guess his number is super low and outside of a normal statistical probability for error. So are the dice just really fortunate against Shesterkin like Dane suggests or is there something else going on?
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Feb 5, 2023 0:26:29 GMT -5
Would be interesting to see the shot distribution for that all star game. At least this time Shesterkin gave up all those goals to an actual team of All-Stars.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Feb 8, 2023 17:03:44 GMT -5
Damn! As the 3rd Best Team Overall (Current Standings) Suffolk has got to do a better job playing those bottom teams (ie:Cleveland 26/27th Overall).
Outshot them by 25 Shots. Total Shots: Suff-52, Clev-27 =79.
Very fortunate to squeak out the Win at Home, with a Favorable Referee and a Sizable Advantage in EVERY category, including Goaltending which isn't always the case. Thank Heavens for a Conor Sheary Shorty for the Win.
And once again the 60 Goal Scorer in the NHL was unable to pot one.
Don't get me wrong, very happen with a Win.
Really wish I could figure this thing out before the season ends with disappointment. Maybe we should keep tweaking shit to make the inferior teams more and more competitive. Make drafting worthless! Make it where we can always have a league where the Cam Stewart's of the GHL will be the face of the league and MVP.
Or, maybe give the Devon Toews guys of the GHL those 10 Million Dollar Cards!
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Feb 9, 2023 13:51:12 GMT -5
Your 60 goal scorer is on pace for 74 goals this year if he stays healthy. If he only plays the 73 games he played last year he’d still be on pace for 66. Which is more than what he actually got. What are you complaining about again? Oh I get it, Glenn he wants the shooting %s lower!
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