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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 10, 2023 20:05:03 GMT -5
69-33 Shots on Goal Advantage....I lose 5-2 on Home Ice....Get the F*ck outta here!!!
I get it...if I had guys whom had less than 50% Shooting Pctg's! But, I don't!
So, why is it always my team that gets the penalty/disadvantage?
PLAYER---SHOOTING %
Matthews---75% Svechnikov-58% Tkachuk----73%. -----Tallied 46 Shots on Goal Tonight - 1 GOAL Burakovsky-69% Hintz------76%
VERSUS
Kyrou-----67% Toews-----43% Panarin---60%. -----Tallied 12 Shots on Goal Tonight - 5 GOALS Benn------47% Eberle----62%
FUCK THAT!!!
Maybe the tweaks to scoring has been swayed too much in favor of goaltenders!
Yes, granted, I know game to game a guy with a lower scoring pctg will score...BUT on a daily basis I have guys with legit HIGHER scoring pctg's NOT scoring even though they're getting their shots...7-9 shots per game. Matthews isn't even scoring at the clicks others are....He had 60 NHL goals last season for goodness sake!!!
SHIT is off this season in the GHL.
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jan 11, 2023 0:21:19 GMT -5
I mean seeing as how Tkachuk is a goal/game guy in the GHL right now…and 73% shot/shot% doesn’t mean he scores 73% of the time lol
But seriously, essentially the higher the shot %(or shot can never remember which one is which) helps calculate when a player shoots. The higher it is, the more likely he is to attempt the shot as his shot score beats whatever stat is pulled from the defender. The weird part is that *I THINK* guys with higher shooting % scores end up shooting from farther out on average which result in a higher likelihood of being stopped.
The flip side is what you point out where the shot is super high which should result in a small bump in possibly beating the goaltender. So if Tkachuk shot against say Shesterkin he would only have advantage 20-30 percent of the time. Resulting in probably something like a .020 decrease in save percentage would be my guess for that shot depending on the location I’m sure. On the plus side he’d probably have a .040 advantage 70 percent of the time if he ever manages to get a shot off in that zone 14 spot
He’s also outpacing last years scoring pace along with half the rest of your team so…
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Post by Scott-New York on Jan 11, 2023 7:57:29 GMT -5
Ohhhhhh, just when you thought you had it all figured out....
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 11, 2023 12:01:55 GMT -5
I mean seeing as how Tkachuk is a goal/game guy in the GHL right now…and 73% shot/shot% doesn’t mean he scores 73% of the time lol But seriously, essentially the higher the shot %(or shot can never remember which one is which) helps calculate when a player shoots. The higher it is, the more likely he is to attempt the shot as his shot score beats whatever stat is pulled from the defender. The weird part is that *I THINK* guys with higher shooting % scores end up shooting from farther out on average which result in a higher likelihood of being stopped. The flip side is what you point out where the shot is super high which should result in a small bump in possibly beating the goaltender. So if Tkachuk shot against say Shesterkin he would only have advantage 20-30 percent of the time. Resulting in probably something like a .020 decrease in save percentage would be my guess for that shot depending on the location I’m sure. On the plus side he’d probably have a .040 advantage 70 percent of the time if he ever manages to get a shot off in that zone 14 spot He’s also outpacing last years scoring pace along with half the rest of your team so… I hear your points, and I don't know IF your speculation is correct about shooting from far out areas because they take more shots. IF, that is the case, that NEEDS to be reigned in because that is NOT necessarily the case in the NHL/GHL "In the Game" comparison. Also, do Jonathan Toews' numbers. Because, he's a point per game player in the GHL too! With a 72-40 Card (43-43-58). What I'm saying is... Players with the scoring cards (Shots, Shooting%,Passer Ratings) which are ABOVE Avg, SHOULD yield above avg stats in the GHL. Granted, they are on teams that have complimentary components. Players with BELOW avg player cards (ie:Toews) shouldn't/wouldn't/aren't be Above avg statistical players in the NHL/GHL. However, in the GHL Fantasy World, we often see subpar players are All-Stars (Cam Stewart). Look at Gaunce on my team. He has a subpar card, but ABOVE avg Offense stats in Shots and Shooting Pctg. That's why I signed him. In real world, he's in the AHL. In GHL world, in 11 mins of ice time per game, he's blowing away legit all-stars. 34 Points in 41 games from the 3rd/4th line. I get it, we aren't going to win every game. BUTTTT, for the Love of God...Explain to me where game in amd game out, one team On Paper and Every statistical category, dominates in game 69-33 shots, or 50-24, 55-23...and loses every time to an Inferior netminder who stood on his head. I'd like to believe that those are anomalies that occur once in a while...BUTTT, here in the Good Ole GHL, they happen every 5 or 6 games against Suffolk!!! Why doesn't my goalie stand on his head and have Shut outs??!! If subpar goalies can rob games, why can't mine do it too??? That's one of my beefs! Aside from the other BS of having my top 6 Forwards Blast 46 Shots on Goal and yielding 1 Goal, while my opponents Top 6 garnered just 12 shots and yielded 5 goals. Time and time, game in and game out. If I were playing against Shesterkin, I'd expect it to be difficult to score and could feasibly expect such an outcome. Not against last years Bobrovsky!!! Sorry, No! Funny thing is...Your arguing why your LEGIT BEST goalie can't stop a beach ball, and I'm wondering how SHITTY Goalies can't stop BB's that he can't even see!!!! Meanwhile, the better teams keep losing to the crappy ones (more than they should be!).
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Jan 11, 2023 14:51:16 GMT -5
I've noticed what Jon said.
My understanding is each "action" is determined by a dice roll.
Player can either pass or shoot (possibly skate it too, along with others)
Passing or shooting based I believe on dice roll referencing cards. Then that shot/pass could be blocked or make it through.
Thing is when you have a guy who shoots a ton but trash at passing he's not likely to attempt a pass but rather throw it on net.
So when a player with high sht and poor pass skates into zone 4 he's more likely to shoot since his pass will more than likely be shit and get intercepted.
I don't necessarily think this is an issue though and can actually use it to your advantage. Surround those guys who will shoot as soon as the puck hits their stick with guys who won't shoot. The other two will likely pass up opportunities to shoot in order to work the puck down lower and hopefully make it to the stick of your shooter in a zone down low.
But yea if a guy like Gaunce has the puck in zone 4 my bet is he's attempting a shot first time he's challenged
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 11, 2023 16:09:43 GMT -5
I've noticed what Jon said. My understanding is each "action" is determined by a dice roll. Player can either pass or shoot (possibly skate it too, along with others) Passing or shooting based I believe on dice roll referencing cards. Then that shot/pass could be blocked or make it through. Thing is when you have a guy who shoots a ton but trash at passing he's not likely to attempt a pass but rather throw it on net. So when a player with high sht and poor pass skates into zone 4 he's more likely to shoot since his pass will more than likely be shit and get intercepted. I don't necessarily think this is an issue though and can actually use it to your advantage. Surround those guys who will shoot as soon as the puck hits their stick with guys who won't shoot. The other two will likely pass up opportunities to shoot in order to work the puck down lower and hopefully make it to the stick of your shooter in a zone down low. But yea if a guy like Gaunce has the puck in zone 4 my bet is he's attempting a shot first time he's challenged I totally understand you Dane, and I agree with you. But, I only added Gaunce to the conversation because of the reference to Toews. I don't have any guys on my Top 6 that are clunkers, non-passing, non-shooting guys. Matthews, Tkachuk, Hintz, Burakovsky, Svechnikov are the players that tallied the 46 Shots JUST between them. My Bottom 6 tallied 23 Shots amongst themselves...of which Gaunce had 5... My team is averaging 50-55 Shots on Goal per game....I'm also limiting my opponents to 25-30 on average. I'm 1st in league on PP Pctg. #12 on Defense/PP. We aren't bad...Only against the bad teams, or teams we should be beating. Point is, IF we use law of average, The more shots you take, the more likely you are to score a goal. It doesn't mean you are going to score on every shot, we all agree on that. My teams rarely get outshot. When I do get outshot, it's only by 5 or less than 10. I cannot remember the last time my team has been dominated. So, just by law of averages, Im controlling the play/puck, taking more shots, chances are, for the most part, I'm going to pot more goals. Not guaranteed, but likely. Not guaranteed to win, but likely. If My Offense is Dominant, My Defense is "Better Than" and my Goalie is "Same or Better Than" my opponent, Plus The added Referee's Rating....Chances are, you can expect a Win. What I keep seeing, is...I have my opponents Dominated in ALL categories (Offense, Defense, Skill and Toughness), my Goalie is within a point of opposing goalie or mine is better than opponent, and during the game my team is performing up to its expected capabilities by controlling the play and out chancing the opponent by 20 or more shots, on numerous occaisions, I lose...By more than one goal too. What's the expectation to have, when you have the better team on paper, and they actually play better than the opponent, BUT Lose? It's not as if we are factoring in "Psychological Advantages,"Bad Coaching, Poor Line Changes, Poor Decision Making on the Ice, Drinking before the Game, Poor Practices, Bad Morning Skates, etc... With nothing else factored in, there's not an explanation acceptable to garner the outcomes I have experienced against the worst teams in this League! None! You can throw all the dice rolls you want at me. But, the other team has to roll the same dice, and in many instances, their chances are worse than mine are....But, they're winning on such a better scale than I am. The Sim is off, period. I'm not saying to start over. Address it, prove me wrong, Prove Jon wrong. Prove Dane wrong. Look at my results Versus: St Paul Calgary (Delia in Net) *Halifax (Gibson in Net with a Minus due to Holtby and Sparks injuries) New Jersey *Hamilton Boston (Last Place Tie 6-6) Boston (Last Place Lost 6-4) That's 7 Losses in the Last 15 Games against ONLY 2 Legitimate teams. Only Halifax and Hamilton were worthy opponents, but again I had the better overall team by the numbers. Hamilton had the MUCH better Goaltender-Loss for Suffolk. WHY didn't my goalie stand on his head? Against Halifax, WHY didn't my goalie stand on his head? St Paul was only three games over .500, Beat Suffolk. Outshot him "69"-33. Why didn't my goalie stand on his head? New Jersey? - I could've put the puck bag in front of the net...Nope! Lost. Calgary, Boston in back to backs, Get the hell outta here! Why isn't Adirondack losing to these schlubs? New York? Halifax? Hamilton? Philly? I understand the dice roll...I used to play Strat-O-Matic Baseball League with a 12 Sided Die...I understand Craps. But, you all have to understand, it has to go both ways. It has to effect everyone the same way. It doesn't only effect one target. It's a totally unemotional roll. There's got to be some other portion of the sim that is added that is factoring into games, that is giving an advantage to places mis-proportionately. IMO!
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Jan 11, 2023 17:45:35 GMT -5
I think it's just harder to attribute your losses to any one thing which is why I'm leaning towards shit luck in those games. I think goalies could use a tweak (Glenn did and we should wait for larger sample size) but other than that it's hard to pinpoint the issue.
Your team is on pace for 110 points which is top 5 almost every year.
Matthews, Hintz, Tkachuk, Svechnikov,Burakovsky and Gaunce all shoot a ton and have above 10% shooting which is within a reasonable range of last years %.
Stolarz on the verge of being top 5 in sv% in GHL. Demko could use to be better but maybe a disproportionate amount of shots are referencing his Reflex, Vision or Anticipation stat which are all garbage (no offense).
There's so many variables in the engine it's hard to pinpoint without more data which Glenn is providing. Shot location data should be really helpful and maybe down the road we can get data on which attribute is referenced most in a goal/save (i.e. 22% of shots Demko faced referenced Angle stat)
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 11, 2023 18:09:43 GMT -5
I think it's just harder to attribute your losses to any one thing which is why I'm leaning towards shit luck in those games. I think goalies could use a tweak (Glenn did and we should wait for larger sample size) but other than that it's hard to pinpoint the issue. Your team is on pace for 110 points which is top 5 almost every year. Matthews, Hintz, Tkachuk, Svechnikov,Burakovsky and Gaunce all shoot a ton and have above 10% shooting which is within a reasonable range of last years %. Stolarz on the verge of being top 5 in sv% in GHL. Demko could use to be better but maybe a disproportionate amount of shots are referencing his Reflex, Vision or Anticipation stat which are all garbage (no offense). There's so many variables in the engine it's hard to pinpoint without more data which Glenn is providing. Shot location data should be really helpful and maybe down the road we can get data on which attribute is referenced most in a goal/save (i.e. 22% of shots Demko faced referenced Angle stat) 68 Times I had Shit Luck! I'd hope, like to think, the SIM has a better appreciation for the game than Luck. If it were based purely on luck, why draft any high, or why pay so much for UFA's with good cards. Do the stats mean anything to the SIM?! I appreciate your understanding of what you tried to explain. I just don't like Pot-Luck games. I share the frustration with Jon, although we are on opposite sides of the goalie wars. I'm sure Shesterkin is a bit curious as to why he can't stop pucks and Bobrovsky mastered the art last night for St Paul. Thanks Dane, for taking the time to rationalize it all.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 11, 2023 18:11:44 GMT -5
I mean seeing as how Tkachuk is a goal/game guy in the GHL right now…and 73% shot/shot% doesn’t mean he scores 73% of the time lol But seriously, essentially the higher the shot %(or shot can never remember which one is which) helps calculate when a player shoots. The higher it is, the more likely he is to attempt the shot as his shot score beats whatever stat is pulled from the defender. The weird part is that *I THINK* guys with higher shooting % scores end up shooting from farther out on average which result in a higher likelihood of being stopped. The flip side is what you point out where the shot is super high which should result in a small bump in possibly beating the goaltender. So if Tkachuk shot against say Shesterkin he would only have advantage 20-30 percent of the time. Resulting in probably something like a .020 decrease in save percentage would be my guess for that shot depending on the location I’m sure. On the plus side he’d probably have a .040 advantage 70 percent of the time if he ever manages to get a shot off in that zone 14 spot He’s also outpacing last years scoring pace along with half the rest of your team so… Pretty sure it does mean he has the chance to score more opportunities than the guy with 43%...
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 11, 2023 18:21:38 GMT -5
I think it's just harder to attribute your losses to any one thing which is why I'm leaning towards shit luck in those games. I think goalies could use a tweak (Glenn did and we should wait for larger sample size) but other than that it's hard to pinpoint the issue. Your team is on pace for 110 points which is top 5 almost every year. Matthews, Hintz, Tkachuk, Svechnikov,Burakovsky and Gaunce all shoot a ton and have above 10% shooting which is within a reasonable range of last years %. Stolarz on the verge of being top 5 in sv% in GHL. Demko could use to be better but maybe a disproportionate amount of shots are referencing his Reflex, Vision or Anticipation stat which are all garbage (no offense). There's so many variables in the engine it's hard to pinpoint without more data which Glenn is providing. Shot location data should be really helpful and maybe down the road we can get data on which attribute is referenced most in a goal/save (i.e. 22% of shots Demko faced referenced Angle stat) Ironically, Bobrovsky and Demko have 4's in the same Attributes, Reflexes, Footwork and Vision.....LOL! Demko must've been really off...Time for a Drug Test!
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Post by Joe-Adirondack on Jan 12, 2023 19:50:38 GMT -5
All I can say is …. You out shoot an opponent by 20 have skill +3 and another plus one so that’s +4 added to scale have five power plays to one against give up four goals in four minutes??? Hit two post and lose a game that I probably should’ve won 7-3 …Chris I feel your pain. In response to the crybabies who goalies aren’t stopping pucks my rebuttal…. I was scoring 7 to 8 goals a game until the crying started and Glenn changed the algorithm and how many fuckin times must the algorithm be changed in a season to me that’s total fuckin bullshit because I built my team going into the season thinking one thing now it’s changed and what am i supposed to do so I’ll bitch like The cunts in this league if u are upset by this this u are the cunt … Glenn u can’t give in to this bs how many versions of this season must I endure… with that said Oregon savor the flavor with your lucky 🍀 win ….. btw I had 30 shots with a 70 to 87 percent chance of scoring and got 1 goal …. Something is rotten in Denmark boys !!!!
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Jan 13, 2023 8:46:01 GMT -5
Haha knew we'd get another. When I saw Glenn made a change knew you'd be hurt most, average D and poor Goalie was going to be felt, but 2 things.
1. When I brought it up I didn't expect changes this season, do I think they make it more realistic, for sure.
2. You need to make an attempt at learning how the sim works because this bitching reminded me of "old man yells at clouds". 70 to 87% scoring? What? I don't know how many times this needs addressed but THATS NOT HOW THAT WORKS. You really expected to score between 40-50 goals that game?
Looking at your last games I honestly don't know what you're whining about, aside from the fact changes make it more realistic. The opposing Goalie since Glenn's change has a .890 sv percent vs your team. That would be top 5-10 sht percent easy in the NHL. Also small sample size that is skewed by 3 games where goalies stole the game a .964, .961, and .945 every other game the other Goalie has played like shit vs you.
Your team was on pace for 448 goals the most scored by an NHL team in the 2000s was 337. Yea goalies needed an adjustment badly whether it happened this season or next.
This is at least the correct thread to just bitch about losing without any supporting stats.
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Jan 13, 2023 9:15:19 GMT -5
Although looking more Georgiev has been insanely good since the change. Maybe something to keep an eye on.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jan 13, 2023 9:58:19 GMT -5
The updates were table based so there really wasn't any code changes aside to log and track all of the shots taken for diagnostic purposes.
It is important to keep in mind that these changes impact all goalies/forwards across the board. Rising tides affect all ships. If a team has a goal scoring advantage over a team the advantage remains even after the table updates. All factors being equal from one game to another, instead of a team winning 8-6 they may win 6-4 instead. Or, because it is a simulation they may lose a given game as well.
The GHL is the farthest from a rotisserie league as you can get. Sometimes people get frustrated because of this but IMHO at least, that's what makes it so much more fun then just deriving points for a team based on how your NHL players did last night.
The goal is and always has been to make the simulation as accurate as possible at a macro level. Because of the complexity there will most likely be variances in individual players performances for the season and for individual games for certain.
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Post by Joe-Adirondack on Jan 13, 2023 14:20:36 GMT -5
With the shot advantage +23 PP Advantage +4 hitting two posts 30 shots from multiple players in the 70-87 pct shooting scoring range , playing the worst team in league at the time , giving up 4 goals in 4 min From a team with less the 100 goals …Yes I’m pissed on the changes because what’s going on with Suffolk and my team ISNT realistic, you don’t dominate teams and lose , does it have 5% of the time or less ok but it’s happening wayyyyyyyyyyyyytyt toooooo frequently in my opinion I’m sure chris agrees
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