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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Jan 14, 2023 12:15:54 GMT -5
"But, should I be putting up such numbers for Shots on Goal? IDK! But, IFFF I am putting up those numbers, why aren't more going in the net when the majority of those shots are being taken by guys with greater percentages to score?"
Because you aren't looking at the whole season you are handpicking games to complain about. Your team has incredible stats (even after the change) across the board. Will they be consistently incredible? No. Will they have bad games? for sure. When I look at Matthews and Tkachuk I see two players with incredibly high shooting percentages so far this season.
You have to realize with dice rolls there's probability for everything. Matthews has a higher probability to score at a better percentage than someone with a worse card. It does not mean that there will be 0 players with worse cards that beat him in sh per.
There may be a Stat that leads to better chances like speed or find space but I haven't figured that out yet, but that's part of figuring out lines. If you see a worse card beating your star try and figure out how line was put together or what stat he may be high in. Odds are it's just luck and the gap will shrink as season goes on.
Also the puck control and offense doesn't have a massive effect on sv% which is why I picked that stat. Technically could get to higher threat areas but probably best Stat for comparing goalies across teams.
8 Goals AND 74 shots is unrealistic I should have said, correct. 8 goals on 74 shots is a realistic(but bad) sv %.
Main thing is handpicking games without looking at the whole season won't tell you anything. Would be like Panthers saying NHL broken because their high percentage shooters put 50+ on the flyers and lost.
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Post by Scott-New York on Jan 14, 2023 15:37:35 GMT -5
Losing to inferior teams is not unrealistic. Comparing the short disparity in the GHL to the NHL (or any other statr, for that matter) however, is unrealistic. There is no way we can expect stats to match real life. This is a simulation, not a mirror. Line combinations will produce different results, and defense pairings will produce different results. The only way to even get close to determining whether these stats were seriously off would be to build all the NHL teams exactly as they are constructed and run the sim. Even then, you wouldn't be able to account for in-game line shuffling or specific line match-ups or a multitude of different true game scenarios that we can't simulate. I'm sorry, but there is just no way to prove anything is amiss with anything you are debating. Have fun, enjoy the sim, and try your hardest not to pretend you're an analytics expert. Sure, there are little tricks you'll learn along the way about what works and what doesn't, but you'll never be able to rationalize the law of averages when they don't work in your favor. This is not directed at any one owner. It's directed at all of them, each and every one.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 14, 2023 15:50:18 GMT -5
I disagree with the Disparity between NHL/GHL bottom teams to top teams comparison, period. Am I right? Are you wrong? Argue about it till we're blue in the face...and it sounds like some of us are already blue in the face.
Regardless, I (Suffolk) am seeing the rarities happen to "ME" (Suffolk) more often. Which means, it's not rare ( To ME ). Why am I not allowed to argue a point MID SEASON, BEFORE THE SEASON ENDS, BUTTTTT YOU (Dane and Jon) are?
Am I ranting, yes...I don't give two shits.
You charts, your rants, your posts are the same to me, as mine are to you.
Are you too stubborn to realize I AGREED with you ya dumbass!!!
Handpicking games....brilliant. Is Jon handpicking the games that Shit-sterkin lost here in the GHL? Or the ones he won?
Just move on, you're not winning with me or Joe. And we're aren't winning with you or Jon.
We're all just blowing smoke up each others asses.
Every time I lose to a shit team I'll be mad. Because, I want to. If you don't like it...to fucking bad. Don't read it, don't comment on it. Just don't let MY nonsense bother you. Be the better man.
BUT, don't try to tell me what to think or what I meant to say IF I DIDN"T SAY IT THE WAY YOU INTERPRETED IT!!!
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 14, 2023 16:05:13 GMT -5
Again, you're putting words in my mouth! I didn't say scoring 8 goals on 74 shots was unrealistic.I said, "TAKING" 70 shots in one game and then the next game take 74 shots was unrealistic. Math is your strong skill. Reading comprehension, not so much. Maybe, it's my NY accent. It's interesting, that you want realism, but your overlooking that Suffolk mustered up 144 shots in last two games. In the last game, Suffolk peppered Markstrom with 74 shots, and Toronto peppered Stolarz with 49. Thats 133 Shots on goal, NOT including the blocked shots or shots wide!!! IS THIS REALISTIC? C'mon Man!
What I am saying is "I feel my team is better than a lot of GHL teams, YES. But, should I be putting up such numbers for Shots on Goal? IDK! But, IFFF I am putting up those numbers, why aren't more going in the net when the majority of those shots are being taken by guys with greater percentages to score? If other guys around the GHL are scoring with less a "SAMPLE SIZE" and cards which are NOT as good as perhaps a Tkachuk or Matthews, why is that? I ask that question because I would genuinely like to know if there is something in the SIM I am missing. BEEEECAUSE, then I will seek those type of player cards out for the future. Reading is fun. The one thing I’ll say is that you can’t say there’s a much bigger disparity between top teams and bottom teams in this league compared to the NHL and then expect it to be realistic/relative to the NHL. That’s not saying that shots and goals are too high because they are, but I’m sure some of those high shots are team disparity related, and probably the amount of “shooters” you have on your team. You guys keep eluding to my players as if to say Suffolk is only an offensive team. My team defense this season has been better than most of my opponents, as well. So, I "ASSUMED" I would fare better defensively this season....and I am. We all have expectations, to a certain degree, LOOKING at the OFFENSIVE and DEFENSIVE RATINGS, SKILL and TOUGHNESS RATINGS. I mean, thats the synapses of our teams. That's what gives you the aggregate number to determine your teams OVERALL "Expected Outcome." Does it mean you're going undefeated...FUCK NO!!! But, don't sit there and tell me that when Seattle, Hamilton, Adirondack, NY or Suffolk faces off against Oregon, NJ, Cleveland that you don't expect to win! Is a loss going to happen...YEAH we ALL know it is. A Better Offense, a Better Defense, and a Better Goalie than your opponent is going to equate to an Overall Better Outcome. AND IT IS for ME. I EXPECTED BETTER AGAINST THE SHITTY TEAMS, AND I AM NOT SEEING IT AS MUCH AS I THOUGHT I WOULD! You don't like my voicing myself? Too bad! Here's an analogy/comparison for tonights Suffolk - Baltimore Matchup Suffolk has a +10 Offensive Advantage Overall Suffolk has a +18 Defensive Advantage Overall Suffolk has a 28.1 Point Skill Advantage Overall Suffolk has a 8 Point Toughness Advantage Overall Suffolk has a slight Goaltender Advantage Tonight depending upon which goalie gets the call Does that mean a Suffolk Win? I hope so...but it's not a guarantee. Will I be mad..No...Baltimore is NOT a shitty team!
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jan 15, 2023 15:27:15 GMT -5
Remember, the game preview tabs assumes there are no lineup holes to be filled. If there are, the stats will be lower than actual game time value.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 15, 2023 21:14:45 GMT -5
Mid Season Stats synapses by a Non-Coding, Non-Mathematical Wiz, who sometimes has no clue, but loves to see results, as he provides the GHL and NHL numbers of our GHL League Leaders.
GHL Shooting %
Pastrnak- 14.4 Kreider- 15.5 *Matthews- 10.2 Draisaitl- 15.7 Aho- 15.5
Last years NHL Shooting % for our Top GHL Players
Pastrnak- 12.8 Kreider- 20.2 Matthews- 17.2 Draisaitl- 19.8 Aho- 16.7
Top 5 GHL Goaltenders (Last Season NHL Stats)
Francouz- .925 (NHL-.916) Comrie- .922 (NHL- .920) Allen- .919 (NHL- .905 Campbell- .918 (NHL- .914) F.Andersen- .915 (NHL- .922)
*Demko- .891 (NHL- .915) *Stolarz- .911 (NHL- .917)
It looks like goaltending is already outperforming Shooters.
Included is the Suffolk goaltending tandem. Demko performing well below last years NHL stats, because this is my team and I wanted to see a comparison.
My Personal League Opinion and Observation: GHL Shooting% isn't terribly off, but it is lower for the these Top 5 players and their NHL stats from last season. Goaltending seems to perform better than skaters. Not terribly greater, but greater still.
My Personal Opinion and Observation: Jake Allen on a disappointing NJ team is playing outstanding. Thatcher Demko on a Top 6 GHL team performing miserably. Auston Matthews shooting at a 10.2 % GHL very disappointing. Roope Hintz shooting at a 10.1%, also disappointing. Matthew Tkachuk at 14.4 is pleasurable, but below his NHL avg. Suffolk team Avg - 10.5%. To this Gm, it appears there's a Goaltenders edge.
Suffolk GM is perplexed as to the dismal performance over the last 20 games or so. Looks to make heads up of his situation. But appears to have head up ass without finding an answer.
It looks like his team matches up well with a 95.7 Offense, 85.2 Defense, 440.4 Skill and 38 Toughness Rating. Goaltenders have a 62-69 Aggregate Score. But, the team loses 33% of their games and has management scratching head.
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Post by Joe-Adirondack on Jan 16, 2023 0:10:41 GMT -5
Chris I wish my team sucked and finished playing u in the playoffs 1st round I win in 6 ,,,,,,this is an exaggeration but not far from the truth
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Post by Scott-New York on Jan 16, 2023 7:34:23 GMT -5
It's a fucking simulation. It will never mirror NHL stats. NEVER! Expecting to see NHL stats here is stupid. But what is expected is that both the goalies on the current #1 team in the GHL are too 5 in stats...BUT THEY DON'T HAVE THE BEST CARDS. Thank you all for proving what you are ignoring because you know it's true. I've been frustrated many times over the years, that's competitive spirit and I love it. I learned a long time ago that, just like in real hockey, putting together all the flashy cards doesn't mean you're going to walk out at the end on top. But it doesn't mean you won't...
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 16, 2023 10:43:11 GMT -5
I cherish your opinion Scotty. I'm just searching for something to grasp on to help "Me" make "My" team better. You know, I'm looking for that special player or stat to help make "My" experience in this SIMULATION, well---Better.
In order to do that, "I" feel like the best way is to gather all the shiny things and sweet smelling objects. "I" like that. I take the bad smelling objects and throw them out. Do you want them for "Your" simulation?
All I can do is go with statistical data that is already provided, it's non-opinionated. It provides "Me" with information to make "My" team better.
Armed with that data, I will provide you with this information:
**ONLY 1 team in the GHL have a better DEFENSE RATING than Suffolk...Quebec beats me by ".3" ONLY 2 teams beat Suffolk in TOUGHNESS...Boston smacks the ever living shit outta me, and everyone. ***(Calgary and Cincy Not Included because their lineups are not filled in) Suffolk sports the #1 OFFENSE and SKILL **Suffolk is #2 #1 on DEFENSE Suffolk is #3 on TOUGHNESS Suffolk has the 19th Ranked Technical Goaltender* Suffolk has the 11th Ranked Athletic Goaltender*
**Edited to show Mikey Anderson has been reinserted into lineuup
*- Indicates Shortcoming (but this is a sim and anything can happen)
I am not saying this because I believe I will win every game in the GHL. This is merely for speculation on one's future performance and to gauge how one will fare throughout the season.
I'd have to "assume" I'm allowed to speculate, that my OFFENSE and DEFENSE would insulate the shortcomings I have in goal to a certain degree. It has in years past. Also, the goalies usually have the edge in this sim, which is something I took into consideration. Not that my goaltending is horrible, I mean, not like the teams I have lost to anyhow. Scotty, your goaltender is ranked 6th, and he's doing quite well. And your other is ranked 13th, also doing quite admirably.
In any case, "I" personally feel the team "I" have assembled, should fare pretty well against the others assembled. But, that's an opinion, I know I know...in this woke world of opinions I'm probably offending someone who doesn't accept "my" opinion.
You don't need to remind any of us that this is a simulation. But, you need to remind yourself, that the best way to win it, is to assemble the best team and make your probabilities of winning that much greater. Right? Expectations and Speculations are all just Fanciful Opinions and Not Factual.
I have a question for you...Would you trade the #2 Draft Pick Overall for #30 straight up, Pre-Draft? Why not?
Is it because #2 is projected to be better than #30? Why would it matter?
You probably wouldn't do that trade because you have a certain expectation for #2 being better than #30. Who doesn't like a good #2!!! (ya see what I did there! LOL!)
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Post by Scott-New York on Jan 16, 2023 15:53:47 GMT -5
See, now I can't argue with those expectations because you based them all on the GHL. What I've been reading through most of these posts is based on NHL comparisons that simply don't translate to the sim for many reasons. It's not just dumb luck that you have you a cup, Chris. If you saw what I did there, you could win another this season despite your current frustration.
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 16, 2023 16:27:40 GMT -5
I do see that Scott. I do!
Looks like it's all just a bad roll of the dice!
When I was in the Strat-o-matic Baseball League, we used an "18 sided dice" and when I wasn't rolling well...I changed it out for another.
Do you think Glenn will change it out for me?
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Post by Chris-Suffolk on Jan 16, 2023 17:29:22 GMT -5
I love the comparisons/non-comparisons of the NHL to GHL.
On one hand, it's said that we shouldn't expect the GHL to be like the NHL.
Then, on the other hand, we should expect to lose to the real crappy teams with the AHL goaltender because it happens in the NHL.
Hard to wrap your head around it all. Guess, it's just a sim, and theirs nothing you can do to make your team good, or bad for that matter. You just spend time here and should not argue with results. Fingers crossed.
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