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Post by Jedediah-Hartford on Jun 4, 2020 18:41:16 GMT -5
That being said it is an interesting question.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jun 6, 2020 7:14:48 GMT -5
Very selfish question so feel free to swat it down. Has there been any thought on draft changes this year as there will likely be significantly less draftable players as a ton usually get a few games at the end of the year which won’t happen this year? My initial guess is likely no change as it could get complicated but something like adding in prospects for players who play in the playoffs may work or deferral of picks until next year and integrate them both together. For the record I am not advocating for wholesale change/new drafting rules/age based whatevers. Just being selfish and am worried my picks may be a bit devalued, after accumulating so many this year, with that loss of talent (if there is one as I don’t know the entire state of draftables and whatnot). Plus I like to complain so there’s that That is a very interesting angle that I hadn't thought about. We could add these players into the fold and assign them a very vanilla card if they were in this situation. I will be curious to see how that would play out. The big problem I see with it would be the fact that these player wouldn't get called up and start playing until after our draft had already concluded. |
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jun 6, 2020 9:03:24 GMT -5
I appreciate y’all being receptive about the issue that may arise with the draft. I’ve cleaned up my proposal a bit since it’s at least worth discussing
Some small tidbits I’ve been able to glean about upcoming seasons is that it sounds like they will, at least for a season or two, start much later. So we don’t have to worry about kicking off next season until the NHL does the same on I believe January 1st 2022 (please correct me if I’m wrong) meaning we do have some time to flesh out any tweaks we (or let’s be honest, it’s all Glenn) need to make before we kick off next year.
The loss of the end of the season cuts out depth from the draft but not high end talent so there are a few rookies who could still make impacts next year in our sim. We do however “lose” a ton of prospects who would normally develop a little slower (making me look like a genius in hindsight a few years down the road when they catch fire) and next year I’d expect an equivalent increase in players though it may get stretched out over an extra year or two. These players then have more history and remove some of the projection, making it somewhat easier to not make huge mistakes. Essentially I see it as a choice of three equally not ideal options but maybe there’s another way that I haven’t thought of. Also again I’d like to stress I don’t know the actual number of draftees we have versus normal and the quality because I don’t have time to do maths and stats on all that but I’d wager it’s a pretty decent impact.
Easiest thing would be to move on with life take the lumps and draft what we have making life a little simpler but have a weaker than normal draft class.
Combine this draft and next - lose out on a few usable cards this year in exchange for evening out the drafts that may be affected by the current disruptions but I’m sure it’d be a pain in the butt to code for and I’m sure a lot of people would feel like there’d be an unfair advantage in having an extra year to see how some players develop. Essentially draft order would be 1st pick 2022 - 1st pick 2021 - 2nd pick 2022 - 2nd 2021 and so on by pick not by round
Allow rookies who only were able to play in playoff games to be coded in as prospects for this year to somewhat offset the loss of the large number of players who normally get a few games at the end of the year. Not sure if there will be a ton especially since playoffs have smaller number of teams and stronger rosters for rookies to crack but it could at least bolster the draft to a more reasonable level
Other options?
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jun 6, 2020 9:29:28 GMT -5
As far as my preference I wanted to add that separate. I think adding in a few prospect cards for rookies who only played in the playoffs could work really well and not be a complete hassle to code in. Plus i think we’re talking about the same thing when Glenn references “Vanilla cards” but maybe I’m misreading and if so please correct me Glenn. I think we could push back our draft and free agency without it affecting our season as well considering the new NHL timeline which pushes back next season. Playoffs theoretically and conservatively would end around Oct-Nov. with 2 months to push through our offseason and all of the actual cards will have already been calculated.
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Post by Scott-New York on Jun 6, 2020 14:02:30 GMT -5
Most teams in the NHL had at most, 10-12 games to play when the season was paused. Therefore, the impact on our draft is minimal as playoff stats don't count. I'll give you possibly 15 players who's junior or college season had ended that might have touched NHL ice over those last couple of weeks of the regular season and would have a prospect card at best. I think given that, we should just move forward with our draft as long as we have at minimum 155 draftable players.
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jun 6, 2020 22:05:09 GMT -5
I was pretty sure that because the CHL and NCAA seasons finishes before the NHL that there were quite a few prospects that were included for the final few games of the season normally. Again I haven’t run the numbers, maybe y’all can look at the number of players coming in and compare it to the last few years if you have the chance since I think most of that should be pulled if you’re already working on cards or if I have some time later this week or next pull out the guys from the last couple of drafts that were included due to late signing to see if there is or isn’t a huge impact. It’d be a decent statistical analysis if nothing else.
On a more personal note, pipe down man. I’m trying to pump up the value of your first rounder over here and you’re presenting logical arguments against it. I don’t like it one bit. I need all the help I can get over here.
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jun 7, 2020 1:10:14 GMT -5
Ok I may have had some spare time this evening. Checked out the first round for the last two years. It seems like about a third of our players picked in the first round played the last few games of the season. I’ll list them out below but last year there were 8 with 2 more that I’m not sure about as they may have had some games at the beginning of the year or injuries or something. Two years ago we had 13 with another additional questionable. I didn’t check to see if these games were beginning or end of the year but I’m sure it’s more common for end of the year elc signings then the other way around. NCAA players definitely only played after their season in college was over.
Pick # - games - name
2019
9 - 6 - Cody Glass
10 - 5 - Quinn Hughes
13 - 7 - Evan Bouchard
14 - 18 - Olli Juolevi - questionable (more likely an injury or something)
16 - 5 - Oliver Wahlstrom
20 - 4 - Dante Fabbro
22 - 1 - Michael DiPietro
25 - 9 - Alexandre Texier
26 - 1 - Ryan Poehling
28 - 14 - Maxime Comtois - questionable (I believe he had games to start and end the season)
2018
2 - 6 - Casey Mittelstadt
5 - 3 - Eeli Tolvanen
7 - 4 - Logan Brown
13 - 4 - Henrik Borgstrom
14 - 1 - Martin Necas
15 - 12 - Ryan Donato
16 - 12 - Owen Tippett - questionable (may have started and ended season)
17 - 6 - Cal Foote
18 - 9 - Kailer Yamamoto
21 - 6 - Michael McLeod
24 - 5 - Nicolas Hague
29 - 6 - Jordan Greenway
30 - 5 - Dylan Sikura
31 - 2 - Jonathan Dahlen
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jun 7, 2020 8:18:51 GMT -5
By vanilla cards I was referring to assigning all forwards with an OFF/DEF comp score of 40-25, d-men 25-40 and goalies 35-35. While this would not make them viable as players in the GHL next year, it would make them draft-able assets as they would have cards and be entered into the GHL player pool.
In regards to delaying the start of the season, I would strongly advise against this. Having the GHL games to follow after the shutdown was nice as it allowed me to get my hockey fix albeit via a simulation. My plan is for us to start on time and we will most likely be using a schedule from a previous year as the basis for the GHL season.
As some draft are stronger than the others, and given the fact that only a dozen or so of these players that we would normally be called up at the end of the year from juniors, and thus made draft-able, it probably doesn’t make sense to try to add these players in.
In regards to having a draft where 2020-1 picks, then 2021-1 picks, 2020-2 picks…. Etc. I think that would be too top heavy and by the time the teams lower in the draft were picking they are essentially starting with 3rd round talent. A possible option would be to blend finishes in both years to determine seeding and using this as the basis for the draft. Teams draft order in each year would be added and then reseeded lowest to highest to determine draft order. Team A was Draft order #1 in 2020 and #5 in 2021. Team B was #3 in 2020 and #2 in 2021. Team A’s draft ranking score would be 6 and team B would be 5 so team B would draft before team A in the draft.
My inclination right now is to proceed as normal with the draft and leave out the players that may or may not have been called up. That being said, I am open for further discussion/thoughts on the matter.
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jun 7, 2020 12:34:12 GMT -5
I think my point is that it’s more than a dozen players. In both of the last two drafts the first round alone consisted of 1/3 of the players being called up at the end of the year. I’d guess that’s similar if not more so in the later rounds of the draft. Imagine either of these drafts without the above players and that’s an incredible loss. Plus the next years draft is likely to see all of those players plus their normal amount. The offsetting of the start of the NHL season is likely to play a role as well, possibly increasing draftables next year. I’d also guess that CHL plays it’s more normal timeframe and same for NCAA if it starts at all (Europe is more Matt’s wheelhouse so I have no clue what the hell they do). That will also increase draftables next year. If anyone doesn’t think this will be the case I’d gladly be willing to trade my draft assets for equal value in next years draft.
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Post by Scott-New York on Jun 7, 2020 14:10:11 GMT -5
I just checked your 2019 stats, Jon, and Juolevi, DiPietro and Comtois would have been in the draft regardless so that leaves 7 of the top 31 picks. It doesn't seem to carry enough weight to change the draft. I also don't think we will see the impact you're predicting for the following year. A slight uptick, possibly, but there is only so much room on professional rosters so I don't think they will see an influx of talent next season, or at least not considerably more than they would see normally.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jun 9, 2020 7:09:24 GMT -5
Cards have been generated. I am working through the updates to the ancillary tables contracts/prospects/etc.to update these for player who had an AHLID contract but now have an NHL card. I have to go through a final round of validation where average scores across the board and compared to previous years as a final validation. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, I should be able to release the cards for general consumption by the weekend at latest. Once ready, I will set a date and time for release but they are very close.
Thanks to Scotty-NY for his assistance over the past week as he was doing some research for me to assist getting the cards into the end zone.
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Post by Jon-Seattle on Jun 9, 2020 21:09:10 GMT -5
Oh as far as the rookie cards I think it’d be more beneficial not to make them vanilla cards in that case. This way I (Or another owner) wouldn’t lose a year for nothing if they haven’t broken that game limit but again, that’s just me. Giving them vanilla cards doesn’t really do anything as I’m not likely going to use them even on my awful roster.
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Post by Glenn-Philadelphia on Jun 10, 2020 6:52:07 GMT -5
Jon,
The benefit of the vanilla cards wouldn't be their use this year. The only benefit is it would have made them draftable this year.
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Post by Scott-New York on Jun 10, 2020 6:55:05 GMT -5
Artificially draftable. I don't like it.
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Post by Dane-Hamilton on Jun 10, 2020 7:52:08 GMT -5
Yea I also am not a big fan of adding in players who normally wouldn't be draftable.
This year 2019 1st round draft picks available - 7
Last year 2018 1st round draft picks available - 13
I see his point about there being less available to choose but I don't think the number is so huge we need to pick and choose what players we can draft this year. There will still be 9 top 10 picks to choose from this year and while it is not as large as some years it should be plenty to have a good draft.
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